Climate Change to Exacerbate Detrimental Consequences for Society

Climate-related extreme events are poised to inflict a heavy toll on humankind, with many becoming more frequent in the future. Researchers from Uppsala University have analyzed postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project to provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These include river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds, and crop failures. The study finds sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires.

Key Takeaways:

• The compound occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can exacerbate detrimental consequences for society, with many regions worldwide transitioning from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences.
• Under a medium-high emission scenario, many locations are projected to experience specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row.
• The joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events can lead to even larger impacts than those of extremes occurring in isolation, with the potential for repeated affect on the same region for several years, or even decades, in a row.
• The research concluded that a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm may occur in the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions.
• The study highlights the need for effective global climate mitigation to minimize the ongoing climatic change and prevent the exacerbation of detrimental consequences for society.
• The research was funded by the European Research Council, Vetenskapsradet, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions, and Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.

Statistics:

• Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide are projected to transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences.
• The joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events is projected to become the norm, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row.
• The research found sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires, with heatwaves projected to increase by several percentage points under a medium-high emission scenario.
• The study analyzed postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, which provides a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes.

Sources:

• Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change. Earth's Future, 2025;13(6).
• Researchers from Uppsala University Report Details of New Studies and Findings in the Area of Climate Change (Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change). Global Warming Focus. June 30, 2025; p 211.