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Climate change

Climate Change to Intensify Water Scarcity in Brazil's Northeast and Central-West Regions

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A recent study has highlighted the significant impacts of climate change on water resources in Brazil, particularly in the northeast and central-west regions. Despite the country's substantial freshwater reserves, the research estimates that recurring water scarcity will worsen due to climate change, which is expected to stress surface and groundwater resources. The study used a GIS-based distributed water balance model to evaluate the effects of climate change on future water availability in Brazil, projecting an increase in average annual temperature and a decrease in precipitation in certain regions.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study estimates that climate change will lead to a projected average temperature rise of 1.02 °C, 1.56 °C, and 1.94 °C in the periods 2025-2050, 2050-2075, and 2075-2100, respectively, under the SSP245 emission scenario.
  • Under the SSP585 emission scenario, the temperature increase is more pronounced, with projections of 1.38 °C, 2.43 °C, and 3.66 °C for the same periods.
  • Precipitation changes across the country are highly variable, with a decrease in the northern and eastern regions.
  • Climate change is projected to reduce groundwater recharge (GWR) by up to -666 mm/year directly, with the Bauru-Caiua Aquifer System expected to face the most severe reduction in GWR.
  • An integrated approach to water resources management will be critical in these regions to effectively balance future water demand and supply.
  • The study highlights the need for a more sustainable approach to water management, considering the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

Statistics:

  • The study projects an increase in average annual temperature of 1.02 °C, 1.56 °C, and 1.94 °C, respectively, under the SSP245 emission scenario.
  • Under the SSP585 emission scenario, the temperature increase is projected to be 1.38 °C, 2.43 °C, and 3.66 °C, respectively.
  • Precipitation changes are projected to be -261 mm/year in the northwest region.
  • Groundwater recharge (GWR) is expected to decrease by up to -666 mm/year directly.
  • The Bauru-Caiua Aquifer System is projected to face the most severe reduction in GWR, with a decrease of up to -27.94%.

Sources:

  • University of Sao Paulo Reports Findings in Climate Change (Climate change impacts on groundwater: a growing challenge for water resources sustainability in Brazil)
  • Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (journal)
  • Springer (publisher)
  • Ricardo Hirata, Groundwater Research Center, Institute of Geosciences, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil (contact information)
  • Leila Goodarzi, Fernando Schuh Rorig, Lincoln Muniz Alves, and Reginaldo Bertolo (additional authors)
  • NewsRx LLC (publisher of the news report)

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