Sign in Subscribe
Global warming

Climate Modeling Reveals Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Research published in the International Journal of Climatology has analyzed the projected changes in extreme precipitation and temperature indices at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming over the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The study, conducted by the University of Missouri, used a technique named bias correction constructed analogues with quantiles mapping reordering (BCCAQ) to downscale daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature from a set of 12 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) over MRB.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that both warming targets are expected to exacerbate very heavy rainfall (R95p) while intensifying extreme precipitation and temperature as a whole except for cumulative wet days (CWD).
  • The rainfall intensity (SDII) is more reduced under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5, with an additional 0.5 degrees C highlighting the sensitivity of SDII to the emission scenario.
  • An additional 0.5 degrees C climate warming is expected to increase TX90p and WSDI by 50% under SSP2-4.5 and nearly 100% under SSP5-8.5 over much of the MRB subregions.
  • Uncertainty contributes to the magnitude of changes, with more than 75% contribution from internal climate variability to total variance, nearly 20% from climate models, and marginal contribution from climate scenarios.
  • Climate warming will pose serious challenges to water availability over the MRB, with consequences for agriculture, crop yields, and ecosystems.
  • The research has been peer-reviewed and published in the International Journal of Climatology.

Statistics:

  • 75% of the total variance in projected changes comes from internal climate variability.
  • 20% of the total variance in projected changes comes from climate models.
  • 50% increase in TX90p under SSP2-4.5 with an additional 0.5 degrees C of climate warming.
  • 100% increase in WSDI under SSP5-8.5 with an additional 0.5 degrees C of climate warming.
  • Reduction in extreme precipitation in the center of the MRB by 0.5 degrees C of climate warming.

Sources:

  • Assessment of Anticipated Changes In Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Under 1.5 c and 2 c Warming Over the Mississippi River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 2025.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
  • University of Missouri, School of Natural Resources, Columbia, MO 65211, United States.

Read more