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Simulation

Climate Modeling Study Reveals Insights into Volcanic Eruptions' Impact on Global Temperatures

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A recent study by researchers at the University of Exeter has shed new light on the role of volcanic eruptions in shaping climate variability. The study, published in the journal Climate of the Past, used a reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model and a climate model to simulate global-mean surface temperature from 6755 BCE to 1900 CE. The researchers found that volcanic eruptions account for a significant portion of climate variability, with an estimated global-mean volcanic forcing of -0.15 W/m² and an associated surface cooling of 0.12 K over the last 9000 years.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study used a reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model (EVA_H) and a climate model (FaIR) to simulate global-mean surface temperature from 6755 BCE to 1900 CE.
  • The researchers estimated that volcanic eruptions account for a global-mean volcanic forcing of -0.15 W/m² and an associated surface cooling of 0.12 K over the last 9000 years.
  • The study found that the temperature response in tree-ring-based reconstructions is in good agreement with the simulations, scaled to Northern Hemisphere summer temperature.
  • Discrepancies between simulated and reconstructed surface temperature response are almost always within uncertainties.
  • The study suggests that uncertainties in land-use forcing and model limitations might explain differences between simulated and reconstructed climate data.

Statistics:

  • Global-mean volcanic forcing: -0.15 W/m²
  • Associated surface cooling: 0.12 K
  • Estimated global-mean volcanic forcing over the last 9000 years: -0.15 W/m²
  • Temperature response in tree-ring-based reconstructions: in good agreement with simulations, scaled to Northern Hemisphere summer temperature
  • Discrepancies between simulated and reconstructed surface temperature response: almost always within uncertainties

Sources:

  • Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature. Climate of the Past, 2025,21():1755-1778. (Climate of the Past - http://www.climate-of-the-past.net/index.html)

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