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All Progressives Congress

Coalition Against President Tinubu: A Futile Attempt

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Former President Goodluck Jonathan was thwarted in his bid for a second term by a coalition of opposition parties in 2015, led by Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). However, the fate of a similar coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 appears bleak. The opposition's chances are diminished by the lack of a strong and acceptable presidential candidate from among their ranks. Furthermore, they must also seek to win the support of notable figures such as former President Jonathan, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and several serving governors from each geopolitical zone.

Key Takeaways:

  • A coalition of opposition parties, led by the APC, succeeded in defeating incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, with Muhammadu Buhari becoming the first opposition candidate to win a presidential election in Nigeria's history.
  • The author believes a similar coalition against President Tinubu in 2027 will not yield positive results due to the lack of a strong and acceptable presidential candidate from among their ranks.
  • The opposition faces a significant challenge in winning the support of notable figures such as former President Jonathan and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who could muster significant electoral support.
  • The author identifies three potential candidates from among the coalition's ranks, including a zonal leader, a former governor, and a second-in-command, but deems them unacceptable as presidential candidates.
  • To succeed, the coalition must seek to win the support of serving governors from each of the six geopolitical zones, who can secure several percentage points of the vote in their respective zones.
  • The author expresses skepticism about the coalition's ability to unseat President Tinubu without a strong and acceptable presidential candidate.

Statistics:

  • Muhammadu Buhari won the 2015 presidential election with the support of the APC coalition, becoming the country's first opposition candidate to win the presidency.
  • The opposition coalition responsible for Buhari's victory comprised the Congress for Progress Change (CPC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP).
  • The current APC presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, faced no opposition in the 2023 elections, but faces potential challenges from a coalition of opposition parties in 2027.

Sources:

  • Article title: Not specified
  • Source: IN 張LATED

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