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Vaccines

COVID-19 Cases Rise Again, But Vaccination Uncertainty Looms

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As children go back to school, coronavirus infections are on the rise, marking another summer wave. However, this uptick is accompanied by an added layer of uncertainty due to the unclear timeline for receiving updated vaccines in the fall. Medical experts are worried that delays and confusion surrounding the vaccines will limit access for those who need them the most, including adults 65 and older, and people with chronic conditions, weakened immune systems, or who are pregnant.

Key Takeaways:

  • Coronavirus infections are rising, with viral levels in wastewater considered high in the West, South, and Midwest, and headed towards the Northeast.
  • The current rise looks similar to seasonal bumps in previous years and is not driving a surge in severe illness, according to Daniel R. Kuritzkes, chief of the division of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.
  • The current predominant variant is XFG, an offshoot of the JN.1 subvariant of omicron.
  • The FDA has advised vaccine manufacturers to update their formulas to target the JN.1 lineage, specifically using the LP.8.1 strain that was dominant in the spring and is closely related to XFG.
  • The FDA's decision to narrow its approval for the vaccine to those 65 and older, and others considered at high risk for severe disease, marks a significant shift from past years when the shots have been broadly available.
  • In the absence of an updated vaccine, most Americans have at least one condition that puts them at higher risk of severe illness from covid, including physical inactivity, asthma, obesity, smoking, and mood disorders.
  • Public health experts recommend staying up-to-date on vaccines, which is still available in the 2024-2025 formula, to protect oneself from covid.
  • Experts advise those who get infected to wait until their symptoms are improving, and refrain from activities for an additional five days.

Statistics:

  • Infections are disproportionately affecting children, with coronavirus diagnoses accounting for 2.18% of emergency room visits among children up to age 11.
  • Viral levels in wastewater are roughly one-third of the levels recorded a year ago, when the country experienced an unusually large summer covid wave.
  • The new variant XFG is an offshoot of the JN.1 subvariant of omicron.

Sources:

  • Marlene Wolfe, Principal Investigator and Co-Program Director, WastewaterSCAN
  • Daniel R. Kuritzkes, Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston
  • Aaron Milstone, Pediatric Infectious-Disease Specialist, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
  • Scott Roberts, Assistant Professor of Infectious Diseases, Yale School of Medicine
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
  • Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
  • American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
  • AHIP, the major insurance lobby
  • Rachel Roubein and Lena H. Sun, Contributors to this report

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