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COVID-19

COVID-19 Mortality Risk Varies Across African Region as SARS-CoV-2 Variant Waves

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A retrospective cohort study conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 13 African countries revealed significant variations in COVID-19 mortality risk across different SARS-CoV-2 variant waves. The study analyzed individual-level data from 520,810 hospitalized children and adults, providing crucial insights into the impact of pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron waves on in-hospital mortality. The research found that children and adults had a comparable risk of in-hospital mortality during the pre-Delta and Delta waves. However, during the Omicron wave, mortality risk decreased significantly by 42% in children and 59% in adults compared to the Delta wave. Notably, the reduction in mortality risk during the Omicron wave was less pronounced for children with severe or critical COVID-19, those co-infected with HIV, and adults co-infected with both HIV and tuberculosis.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study examined 520,810 hospitalized children and adults in 13 African countries to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on in-hospital mortality.
  • Among children, the risk of in-hospital mortality was comparable between pre-Delta and Delta waves (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.77-1.35).
  • In adults, mortality increased by 6% during the Delta wave compared to the pre-Delta wave (aHR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09).
  • During the Omicron wave, mortality risk decreased significantly by 42% in children (aHR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43-0.80) and 59% in adults (aHR 0.41, 95% CI 0.40-0.43).
  • The reduction in mortality risk during the Omicron wave was less pronounced for children with severe or critical COVID-19, those co-infected with HIV, and adults co-infected with both HIV and tuberculosis.
  • The study highlights the importance of prioritizing booster vaccinations and intensified treatment for vulnerable populations as per WHO recommendations.

Statistics:

  • 520,810: The number of hospitalized children and adults included in the study.
  • 13: The number of African countries participating in the study.
  • 6%: The increase in mortality in adults during the Delta wave compared to the pre-Delta wave.
  • 42%: The decrease in mortality risk in children during the Omicron wave compared to the Delta wave.
  • 59%: The decrease in mortality risk in adults during the Omicron wave compared to the Delta wave.

Sources:

  • In-hospital Mortality Among Children and Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 in Africa Across Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Waves. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2025:107924.
  • World Health Organization (WHO) Reports Findings in COVID-19 (In-hospital Mortality Among Children and Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 in Africa Across Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Waves). Pediatrics Week. May 31, 2025; p 20.

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