COVID-19 Pandemic Disrupts Seasonal Patterns of Suicide Rates in Canada

A new study exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Canada reveals a unique opportunity to test the theory that lower societal value of life leads to reduced suicide rates. Researchers analyzed weekly data from 2010 to 2019, finding a significant decrease in suicide rates when death rates increased. This pattern was used to predict 2020 suicide rates, accounting for 11.6% of the variation in actual rates. The findings offer insights into the relationship between death rates and suicide rates, suggesting that each non-suicide-related death may remove a potential suicide from the population, thereby censuring the suicide rate.

Key Takeaways:

• Researchers from Canada analyzed weekly suicide rates from 2010 to 2019, using death rates as a predictor variable.
• The study found that for every 1 standard deviation increase in the death rate, suicide rates decrease by an average of 0.27 standard deviations.
• The model predicted 2020 suicide rates, accounting for 11.6% of the variation in actual rates.
• The findings support Erwin Stengel's theory that suicide becomes rarer in times when the value of life within a society is lower.
• The study suggests that each non-suicide-related death removes a potential suicide from the population, thereby censuring the suicide rate.
• The pre-pandemic relationship between death rates and suicide rates persisted during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Statistics:

• The study used 521 data points from 2010 to 2019 to model weekly Canadian suicide rates.
• The model was used to predict 2020 suicide rates using 52 data points from 2020.
• The predictions accounted for 11.6% of the variation in actual 2020 suicide rates.
• The analysis found that for every 1 standard deviation increase in the death rate, suicide rates decrease by an average of 0.27 standard deviations.

Sources:

• osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/aj7bz_v3 (preprint abstract)