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Vaccines

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and Economic Impact

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to the development and use of various vaccines, with mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 being two of the most prominent ones. A recent study aimed to determine the clinical and economic impact of differences in effectiveness between these two vaccines as booster shots in US adults over the course of one year. The study used a decision analytic model to compare three scenarios: the current mix of vaccines, where only mRNA-1273 is administered, and where only BNT162b2 is administered.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study predicts 65.2 million outpatient visits, 3.4 million hospitalizations, and 636,100 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022 under the current vaccination scenario.
  • The mRNA-1273 booster scenario reduced outpatient visits by 684,400, hospitalizations by 48,700, and deaths by 9,500, compared to the current scenario.
  • The mRNA-1273 booster scenario decreased direct medical costs by $1.3 billion, whereas the BNT162b2 booster scenario increased direct medical costs by $946 million.
  • Increasing the proportion of people receiving mRNA-1273 as a booster is expected to reduce COVID-19-related outcomes and costs in 2022, regardless of COVID-19 incidence or variant.
  • The study found that higher incidence rates of COVID-19 lead to higher outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, while lower vaccine effectiveness leads to increased outcomes and higher costs.
  • The study's results are based on a preprint article and have not been peer-reviewed.

Statistics:

  • 65.2 million outpatient visits, 3.4 million hospitalizations, and 636,100 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022 are predicted under the current vaccination scenario.
  • mRNA-1273 booster scenario reduces outcomes compared to the current scenario as follows:

+ Outpatient visits: 65,200,000 - 684,400 = 64,515,600

+ Hospitalizations: 3,400,000 - 48,700 = 3,351,300

+ Deaths: 636,100 - 9,500 = 626,600

  • Direct medical costs decrease by $1.3 billion with mRNA-1273 booster scenario.
  • BNT162b2 booster scenario increases direct medical costs by $946 million.

Sources:

  • (2022, March 31). https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.31.22272957v1

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