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Decrease in Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence in Hubei Province, China: An Analysis of Trends and Projection

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A new report has highlighted a significant decrease in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Hubei Province, China, from 2004 to 2023. According to the research, the incidence number of PTB decreased by 46.63% and the incidence rate decreased by 48.50% during this period. The study analyzed the effects of age, period, and cohort on PTB incidence trends using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis.

Key Takeaways:

  • The incidence number of PTB in Hubei Province decreased by 46.63% from 2004 to 2023.
  • The incidence rate of PTB in Hubei Province decreased by 48.50% from 2004 to 2023.
  • APC analysis indicated an overall annual percentage change (net drift) of -5.45% per year, with -4.48% for females and -5.86% for males.
  • Period effects showed a decreasing trend, with the highest risk observed from 2004 to 2008.
  • Cohort effects indicated that later-born cohorts had lower risk, with the cohort 1919-1923 having the highest risk (rate ratio [RR] = 18.97) and the cohort 2019-2023 having the lowest risk (RR = 0.04).
  • The Bayesian APC model projected 23,284 PTB cases in Hubei Province in 2033, a decrease of 60.98% from 2004.
  • Demographic decomposition analysis revealed that age-specific incidence was the primary driver of the increasing trend in PTB incidence from 2005 to 2033.

Statistics:

  • 46.63% decrease in incidence number of PTB from 2004 to 2023.
  • 48.50% decrease in incidence rate of PTB from 2004 to 2023.
  • -5.45% overall annual percentage change (net drift) per year.
  • -4.48% annual percentage change for females.
  • -5.86% annual percentage change for males.
  • Projected 23,284 PTB cases in Hubei Province in 2033.
  • 60.98% decrease in PTB burden by 2033 compared to 2004.

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Study Findings from Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Provide New Insights into Pulmonary Tuberculosis (Trends and projection of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Hubei Province, china: an age-period-cohort modeling study). TB & Outbreaks Week. October 21, 2025; p 7957.
  • Trends and projection of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Hubei Province, china: an age-period-cohort modeling study. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2025;25(1):1271.

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