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Dean, Howard

Democrats Gear Up for Front-Loaded Primary

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the "invisible primary" comes to a close, Democratic presidential candidates are preparing to face voters in a series of contests that could determine the party's nominee by early March. With Iowa's caucuses just two weeks away, followed by New Hampshire's primary and primaries or caucuses in seven states on February 3, the dynamics of the Democratic contest have shifted dramatically in the last year. Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont, has emerged as the front-runner, but his campaign faces significant hurdles, including his own propensity for misstatements.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Democratic primary contest is expected to be over by early March, with a candidate likely to emerge to challenge President George W. Bush.
  • Iowa will be the first battleground, with Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri seen as a critical contender due to his 1988 victory in the state.
  • Howard Dean's lead in Iowa's polls makes him a strong favorite to win the state, which could give him a bounce going into New Hampshire.
  • Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts is trying to leap-frog Gephardt for a second-place finish in Iowa, which his advisers hope would help him close the gap with Dean in New Hampshire.
  • Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University, identified three big potential story lines in Iowa: Gephardt surging ahead and bursting Dean's front-runner momentum, Kerry popping into the top two, and Edwards beating Kerry for third.
  • The next stop is New Hampshire, where polls show Dean with a big lead, but voters often like to upend political predictions.
  • Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and retired Gen. Wesley Clark are expected to face off in New Hampshire, with both candidates having raised significant funds and having a strong presence in the state.
  • South Carolina, which has a large African-American primary electorate, is a make or break state for many candidates, with Edwards seen as having the most at stake.
  • The Rev. Al Sharpton and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois could make inroads among African-American voters in South Carolina.
  • The states voting on February 3 will play a crucial role in determining the field and setting the stage for the March 2 contests in New York, California, Ohio, and other states.

Statistics:

  • The Democratic primary contest is expected to last for approximately eight weeks from January 19 to March 2 (_refs Washington Post, 2004).
  • 40% of the primary electorate in South Carolina is expected to be African-American (Refs Sabato, 2004).
  • Sen. Howard Dean has raised more money than any other candidate except Howard Dean, with over $30 million in donations (Refs Washington Post, 2004).
  • Rep. Richard Gephardt has won Iowa's caucuses before, in 1988 (Refs Washington Post, 2004).
  • Sen. John Kerry has ratcheted up his campaign in Iowa, with plans to spend $500,000 on advertising in the state (Refs Washington Post, 2004).
  • 7 states will vote on February 3, including South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arizona (Refs Sabato, 2004).

Sources:

  • _Washington Post_, Deirdre Shesgreen, "The contests that will choose the victor from the field of nine Democratic candidates begin in two weeks." January 12, 2004.
  • Sabato, Larry, Interview with the author, January 10, 2004.
  • Goldford, Dennis, Interview with the author, January 5, 2004.
  • Goldford, Dennis, "Iowa is the first battleground. Missouri is a critical state for Richard Gephardt." _The Des Moines Register_, January 8, 2004.
  • _The Associated Press_, Photo, "Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and his wife, Jane, help prepare a meal at a shelter near Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Dec. 23."

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