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Kerry, John

Democrats Hope to Win Tennessee in November After Kerry's Expected Win in Tuesday's Primary

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As Al Gore's loss in Tennessee in 2000 still weighs heavily on Democrats' minds, Senator John Kerry's expected win in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary against two Southerners has given them reason to believe they might be able to shift the state into their win column in November. Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee, who serves as Mr. Kerry's national co-chairman and has a powerful political machine in Memphis, believes that Mr. Kerry's ability to win in Tennessee would show that voters can support a Northerner and would not automatically vote for President Bush. Mr. Ford's machine in Memphis is expected to play a significant role in energizing African-American voters on Mr. Kerry's behalf.

Key Takeaways:

  • Senator John Kerry is expected to win the Democratic presidential primary in Tennessee on Tuesday, according to polls.
  • Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee believes that Mr. Kerry's win would send a statement to the White House that voters in the South are willing to listen to issues and not automatically vote for a Southerner.
  • Mr. Kerry's ability to win in Tennessee without strong efforts would show that he has momentum from his earlier wins in other states.
  • The state has lost 72,000 jobs in the last three years, with the candidates blaming President Bush rather than dissecting each other's programs.
  • The candidates are avoiding talk of gun control, one of the issues that contributed to Mr. Gore's loss in 2000.
  • Howard Dean has abandoned the state, and Representative Jim Cooper believes that issues pale in comparison to character and electability.
  • Mr. Kerry has won endorsements from former Gov. Ned McWherter and Representative Harold E. Ford Jr., one of the state's most popular politicians and Mr. Kerry's national co-chairman.
  • Mr. Ford expects his machine in Memphis to more than offset support for General Clark and Mr. Edwards in rural west Tennessee.
  • Both General Clark and Mr. Edwards have strong organizations in Tennessee, but have spent far more time and money in the state than Mr. Kerry.
  • Nashville, which tends to vote Republican, remains a key issue for Democrats, with the National Rifle Association expected to get involved on Mr. Bush's behalf.

Statistics:

  • 72,000: the number of jobs lost in Tennessee in the last three years.
  • $1.2 million: the amount General Clark has spent on Tennessee television, radio, and direct mail advertising.
  • 4 percentage points: the margin by which Mr. Gore lost Tennessee to President Bush in 2000.

Sources:

  • Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee
  • Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts
  • Randall A. Button, Tennessee state Democratic chairman
  • Richard Chesteen, University of Tennessee at Martin political scientist
  • John Gear, Vanderbilt University political scientist
  • Nashville Tennessean
  • The New York Times

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