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Political campaigns

Democrats Make Gains in Pennsylvania, Outperform Expectations

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Pennsylvania Democrats scored decisive wins in the midterm elections, outperforming expectations in traditionally Republican areas and eroding GOP majorities in the state Legislature. Governor-elect Josh Shapiro and Senator-elect John Fetterman won their respective races despite President Biden's flagging popularity, with Shapiro leading by 13 points and Fetterman by 3 points as of Wednesday. The victories were attributed to the candidates' efforts to campaign across the state, including in rural and exurban areas, as well as their ability to connect with white, working-class voters who had previously flocked to Trump.

Key Takeaways:

  • Governor-elect Josh Shapiro won the election for governor by 13 points, the largest margin for a non-incumbent candidate in the state since 1946.
  • Senator-elect John Fetterman won the election for Senate by 3 points, despite his left-wing politics being seen as too extreme by some Republicans and Democrats.
  • The Democratic victories were attributed to the candidates' efforts to campaign across the state, including in rural and exurban areas.
  • Shapiro's campaign underscored its success in improving margins over Biden's 2020 performance, including a 20 percentage point increase in several counties.
  • Fetterman's "every county, every vote" campaign strategy and slogan aimed at white, working-class voters who had fled the Democratic Party in recent elections.
  • Shapiro and Fetterman's campaigns coordinated well and shared resources, demonstrating a strong operation that will be used as a model for future Democratic wins.
  • The Democratic victories were seen as a strategy to build on for future wins, making their presence felt all over the state instead of relying on urban centers and friendly suburbs.
  • Republicans nominated candidates with heavy political baggage, including Doug Mastriano, a state senator who was seen as too extreme, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a candidate who struggled to connect with Republican voters.

Statistics:

  • Shapiro was ahead by 13 points as of Wednesday.
  • Fetterman was ahead by 3 points as of Wednesday.
  • Shapiro's campaign improved margins over Biden's 2020 performance by 20 percentage points in several counties.
  • Fetterman's campaign strategy aimed to connect with white, working-class voters who had fled the Democratic Party in recent elections.
  • The Democratic victories were seen as a way to reintroduce the party to disaffected and working-class voters.

Sources:

  • Marc Levy
  • The Associated Press
  • Twitter: Marc Levy (@timelywriter)
  • AP News: Explaining the Elections
  • AP News: 2022 Midterm Elections Coverage

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