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Political parties

Democrats Poised for Midterm Gains Despite Conventionally Shaky Outlook

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Recent primaries in New Jersey and Virginia showed Democratic voters nominating moderate and progressive candidates for governor with broad appeal, flipping Republican-held House seats in the process. These candidates prioritized affordability, a crucial issue for voters as inflation and cost of living concerns grow. The Democratic Party's primary voters, who have been picking candidates addressing the party's brand problems, are not representative of the nation, according to recent trends and voter sentiment.

Key Takeaways:

  • Democrats have had a base of strong electoral support among Black and Hispanic people, Gen Z, millennials, and unmarried women, but recent trends suggest they are increasingly concerned about crime, violence, and affordability.
  • The party's primary voters have been choosing candidates who prioritize mainstream concerns over far-left ideologies, indicating a shift towards more moderate leadership.
  • In the past two years, no mainstream statewide candidate has lost to a challenger from the Bernie Sanders wing, suggesting that the party is moving away from the activist, elite agenda that dominated under President Joe Biden.
  • A November Democracy Corps poll found that voters cited getting control of the border as their top reason for voting against Vice President Kamala Harris, and many Democrats oppose policies like "defunding the police" and risking taxpayer money for transgender athlete participation.
  • Democrats have a 15-point gap between inflation and cost of living concerns, which sunk President Biden's approval ratings and could hurt Republicans in 2026 as they plan to pass a One Big Beautiful Bill with tax cuts for big corporations.
  • Republicans' support for "trickle-down economics" could set up a powerful choice for 2026, with voters concerned about affordability and their finances during an extended cost-of-living crisis.

Statistics:

  • 60% of White Gen Z and 70% of Black and Hispanic voters strongly supported government banning transgender male athletes participating in women's sports (Source: Democracy Corp poll, November).
  • 15-point gap between inflation and cost of living concerns on voters' minds (Source: Democracy Corps poll, November 2024).
  • Democrats' base gave a "very cool" response to the phrase "defund the police" (Source: Democracy Corps poll, October).
  • 54% of Democrats said they want to ban government funds from states that fail to introduce gender-neutral bathrooms and require transgender athletes to participate in women's sports (Source: Democracy Corp poll, November).

Sources:

  • Democracy Corps poll (November 2024)
  • Democracy Corps poll (October 2024)
  • James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg, co-foundors of Democracy Corps and co-authors of "It's the Middle Class, Stupid!"

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