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Pediatrics

Devastating Resurgence of Childhood Tuberculosis Feared in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A new study has warned that the collapse of US bilateral health aid could lead to an additional 2.5 million pediatric TB cases and 340,000 pediatric TB deaths in Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 2025 and 2034, compared to pre-2025 funding levels. The study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, highlights the devastating impact of US global health funding cuts on TB control efforts in Africa. Despite US efforts saving more than 75 million lives through USAid and other programs, President Donald Trump's new regime has sharply cut global health aid, dismantling USAid's health division, suspending Pepfar, and quitting the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Key Takeaways:

  • The study estimates that a collapse of US bilateral health aid could lead to an additional 2.5 million pediatric TB cases and 340,000 pediatric TB deaths in Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 2025 and 2034.
  • The US was the largest single contributor to TB control efforts globally, mainly through the USAid and its support for the Global Fund, which has helped prevent more than 75 million TB deaths worldwide.
  • The study points out that Africa's two decades of progress in TB control could be undone in just a few years if the recent and proposed cuts to US bilateral health aid continue.
  • The researchers warn that losing donor support could collapse childhood TB treatment capacity almost overnight in countries like Mozambique, Zambia, and Malawi.
  • The study highlights the interconnectedness of TB and HIV epidemics, with people living with HIV being 20 times more likely to develop TB.
  • Researchers estimate that up to 90 percent of projected child TB deaths could still be prevented if funding is restored within a year.
  • The study emphasizes the importance of international cooperation on health and warns that the US retreat from global health aid signals a dangerous precedent.

Statistics:

  • 2.5 million: additional pediatric TB cases that could occur in Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 2025 and 2034 if US bilateral health aid collapses.
  • 340,000: pediatric TB deaths that could occur in Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 2025 and 2034 if US bilateral health aid collapses.
  • 75 million: lives saved through USAid and other programs.
  • 20 times: increased risk of developing TB for people living with HIV.
  • 90 percent: projected child TB deaths that could be prevented if funding is restored within a year.
  • 2025-2034: timeframe in which the impact of US bilateral health aid cuts could be felt.

Sources:

  • The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, "TB diagnosis hits over eight million, highest figure in WHO records"
  • Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Boston University School of Public Health, "The collapse of US bilateral health aid could lead to an additional 2.5 million pediatric TB cases and 340,000 pediatric TB deaths in Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 2025 and 2034"
  • The Lancet, "TB control in Africa: a decade of progress at risk of reversal"
  • World Health Organization, "TB (Tuberculosis) - Factsheet"
  • Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, "TB and HIV epidemic intertwined"

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