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Elections

Early Voting Data Suggests Democratic Candidates in NJ, NY, and VA May Have an Advantage

Strategic Insights

— 3 min read

The pre-election voting data in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia suggests that Democratic candidates may be in a stronger position than Kamala Harris was at the same time last year. According to CNN's analysis of the early voting data, Democratic candidates in these states are showing signs of increased activity, particularly among younger voters, who are a key part of their base. In New Jersey, Democrats have turned out at a higher rate than Republicans in both mail and early in-person voting, putting the Democratic candidate for governor, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill, in a stronger position. In New York City, the electorate is still younger than in past mayoral elections, and while older voters have turned out more, younger voters are catching up, with about 53% of registered Democratic voters being ages 50 and up, and almost 16% being ages 18 to 29. In Virginia, the geographic breakdown of early in-person votes suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in a slightly stronger position than Harris was at the same point in last year's election.

Key Takeaways:

  • In New Jersey, Democrats have turned out at a higher rate than Republicans in both mail and early in-person voting, with a 41-point gap in mail ballot returns and a 2-point lead in in-person early voting.
  • In New York City, the electorate is still younger than in past mayoral elections, with about 53% of registered Democratic voters being ages 50 and up, and almost 16% being ages 18 to 29.
  • In Virginia, the geographic breakdown of early in-person votes suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in a slightly stronger position than Harris was at the same point in last year's election.
  • Among registered Democrats in New York City, older voters have turned out more so far than they did during the primary, when strong backing from younger voters helped propel Zohran Mamdani to a surprise victory.
  • The geographic distribution of Democratic votes in New York City has been more favorable to Cuomo than it was in the June primary, with turnout strongest so far in precincts where Cuomo did best and relatively weaker in strong Mamdani areas.
  • The most Cuomo-friendly precincts have cast 125% of their primary early in-person totals, while the most Mamdani-friendly precincts have cast 85% of their early voting totals.
  • In Virginia, mail ballots make up a larger share of the pre-election vote this year (24%) than they did at this point last year (21%), resulting in a geographic breakdown of the combined pre-election vote that is more Democratic-leaning relative to the same point in the 2024 election.

Statistics:

  • 41-point gap in mail ballot returns between Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey.
  • 2-point lead in in-person early voting among Democrats in New Jersey.
  • 53% of registered Democratic voters in New York City are ages 50 and up.
  • 16% of registered Democratic voters in New York City are ages 18 to 29.
  • 61% of in-person votes cast in counties where Trump won in 2020 in Virginia.
  • 57% of in-person votes cast in counties where Harris won in 2020 in Virginia.
  • 54% of in-person votes cast in counties where Trump won more than 75% of the vote in Virginia.
  • 10-point gap in in-person votes between Trump-won and Harris-won counties in Virginia, which narrowed to 4 points over the last week.
  • 125% of primary early in-person totals cast by the most Cuomo-friendly precincts in New York City.
  • 85% of early voting totals cast by the most Mamdani-friendly precincts in New York City.
  • 24% of mail ballots cast in Virginia this year, compared to 21% at the same point last year.

Sources:

  • CNN, Early voting data suggests Democratic candidates in NJ, NY, and VA may have an advantage.
  • New York City Board of Elections, Early Voting Data.
  • L2, Data on the 2021 New York City mayoral election.
  • CNN, Polls show younger voters overwhelmingly favor Zohran Mamdani, while Cuomo has a smaller lead among older voters in New York City.
  • CNN, Virginia's early in-person votes suggest Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger may be in a stronger position than Harris was at the same point last year.

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