Egypt's Unsettling Future: A Test for US Middle East Policy

As the protests in Egypt gain momentum, the country's leader, Hosni Mubarak, appears to be on the verge of departure, sending shockwaves through the Middle East and the United States. For decades, Mubarak has been a steadfast ally of the US, but his likely exit raises concerns about the future of democracy, regional stability, and the historic treaty with Israel. The US, under pressure to navigate this uncertain landscape, faces a daunting task of balancing its interests with the ideals of democracy and human rights.

Key Takeaways:

• The Egyptian treaty with Israel, signed in 1979, is at risk of being repudiated by a successor regime, potentially reversing decades of progress in the peace process.
• Mubarak's suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamist organization, has kept it from gaining significant influence, but its recent involvement in the protests raises concerns about its potential role in a post-Mubarak government.
• Egypt's guaranteed passage through the Suez Canal, a critical oil conduit, could be threatened by a less reliable regime, posing a major threat to the global economy.
• President Obama's call for an orderly transition to democracy and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's warnings against military dictatorship or a flawed democracy are laudable, but may be insufficient to prevent the two feared outcomes: Brotherhood ascendency or military rule.
• The military, which has significant influence in Egyptian politics, lacks a tradition of democracy and may maintain stability through authoritarian means.
• The protesters, who sparked the rebellion, lack organization, clear leadership, and defined goals, making it uncertain what they will demand from a future government.

Statistics:

• Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, has ruled for 29 years, making him the embodiment of the US's decade-long assumptions about the region.
• The US has invested heavily in Egypt's stability, receiving significant rewards, including Mubarak's supression of the Muslim Brotherhood and his support for the historic treaty with Israel.
• The Muslim Brotherhood is the oldest and largest radical Islamist organization, with strong links to al-Qaeda.
• 82% of Egyptians, aged 18-24, are too young to have experienced life under Mubarak's rule, indicating a potentially significant shift in public opinion.

Sources:

• The New York Times, "A President's Last Stand"
• Al Jazeera, "Egypt's Army Vetoes Mubarak's Plan for Israel-Backed Interim Government"
• BBC News, "Egypt protests: Widespread clashes across country"