Election Deniers' Doubts Prove to Be a Bad Get-Out-the-Vote Strategy

As Election Day woes unfolded in Maricopa County, Arizona, conservative voters primed by two years of former President Donald Trump's stolen-election lies began to see conspiracy in every step of the voting process. The state's Republican Party soon warned voters away from using Box 3, a secure box for ballots in case of printer errors, as suspicions flew across Twitter and right-wing media. ''Do not trust them,'' Charlie Kirk, the conservative leader, warned his followers. However, this message reinforced Republicans' skepticism about elections and didn't do much to help their candidates win.

Key Takeaways:

• The 2022 midterm elections showed that casting doubt on the legitimacy of elections might be an effective tool for galvanizing true believers to participate in a primary, but it can be a lousy strategy for getting the most votes.
• Post-election data may help show the impact of intense rhetoric about a rigged system on Republican turnout, which was relatively robust but did not meet expectations.
• Republican candidates, like Kari Lake in Arizona, prioritized voting in person on Election Day over voting by mail, which they denigrated as fraud-ridden, despite it being a safe and efficient option.
• Many Republicans disparaged mail voting, following the example of former President Trump, who voted by mail himself.
• In Nevada, Adam Laxalt initially suggested that voting by mail and using drop boxes were ''not safe methods'' but later changed his tune, urging voters to beat the weather and vote early.
• Republicans might have learned lessons from Glenn Youngkin's successful campaign for governor in Virginia, which embraced voting by mail and voting early.
• In Arizona, Republicans calculated that a series of Trump-style rallies and excitement around Ms. Lake would lead to an overwhelming show of force on Election Day, but ultimately relied on voters' doubts and suspicion about vote-by-mail.
• The campaign of Ms. Hobbs, the opposing candidate, relied heavily on mail voting and was quietly working to send supporters to the polls in a targeted fashion.

Statistics:

• According to data from the secretary of state's office, the share of voters who cast ballots on Election Day in Nevada was 21 percent in 2022 compared with 11 percent in 2020.
• In Michigan, Republicans narrowly lost the state's House of Representatives by roughly 700 votes across a couple of districts.
• In Arizona, polls initially experienced a glitch due to a printer error, with tabulation machines rejecting thousands of ballots.

Sources:

• NY Times, "Election Deniers' Doubts Prove to Be a Bad Get-Out-the-Vote Strategy"
• Charles Homans and Ken Bensinger, NY Times contributors