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Missiles

Escalation Watch: Iran and US on Brink of War

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Tensions between Iran and the United States escalated this week as reports emerged that Iran is preparing to strike US military bases in the Middle East in response to potential US involvement in Israel's war with Iran. The situation is evolving rapidly, with US officials telling the New York Times that Iran has reduced the number of ballistic missiles launched in recent conflicts, suggesting that Israeli strikes have been effective against Iranian missile launchers.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran is reportedly preparing to strike US military bases in the Middle East if President Trump decides to enter Israel's war with Iran.
  • Iranian missile barrages in recent conflicts have been significantly smaller compared to its October 2024 attack on Israel, suggesting Israeli strikes have been effective against Iranian missile launchers.
  • The US military has withdrawn from two more bases inside Syria, with Reuters reporting that Al-Wazir and Tel Baydar bases have been shut down, leaving no US troops in northeastern Syria.
  • US "Fighter jets have joined in launching strikes to defend Israel, but officials said Tuesday that no American aircraft were over Iran," according to the Associated Press.
  • CENTCOM chief Gen. Erik Kurilla has reportedly had "nearly all" his requests approved by the White House in the current conflict, according to Politico.
  • Trump dangled the threat of assassination over Iran's leader, writing on social media that "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding-We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that "The Iranian nation cannot be surrendered," adding that "any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage."

Statistics:

  • Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles in two waves in October 2024, whereas Iran used 30 to 40 missiles per barrage on June 16.
  • Iran used 20 missiles in its largest barrage and two missiles in its smallest barrage on June 17.
  • The US military has withdrawn from four bases inside Syria since Trump took office, according to Reuters.
  • The Defense Department's budget request for fiscal year 2026 is being considered by the Senate Committee on Armed Services, with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Dan Caine set to testify.
  • The Army is expected to produce 1 million artillery shells next year, with millions more being sent to Ukraine's front lines in response to the ongoing war.

Sources:

  • New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/iran-israel-us-bases.html
  • Washington-based Institute for the Study of War: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-17-2025-evening-edition
  • Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-pulls-out-two-more-bases-syria-worrying-kurdish-forces-2025-06-17/
  • Associated Press: https://apnews.com/article/us-military-middle-east-iran-israel-a4287f29c84b6eee954011ecd8a670d3

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