European Commission's Green Deal Strategies May Lead to Decreased Crop Yields and Increased Prices

As the European Commission works towards halving pesticide use in agriculture by 2030 and reducing fertilizer use, researchers at Wageningen University & Research have conducted a study to assess the impact on crop yields and agricultural production. The study, commissioned by CropLife Europe and CropLife International, focused on the Farm2Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity (BD) strategies, examining their impact on both annual and perennial crops. The research mapped out four scenarios, derived from the strategies, which showed a significant decline in crop yields and agricultural production.

Key Takeaways:

• The study found that implementation of the F2F and BD strategies would lead to a 10 to 20 percent decrease in crop yields and agricultural production, with some crops suffering more than others.
• The scenarios analyzed showed that the cumulative impact of several farm-to-fork targets, including pesticide and fertilizer reduction, would result in an average production decline of between 10 and 20 percent.
• The reduction in pesticide use can lead to quality problems, such as fungal toxins in grain, making it unsuitable for consumption or animal feed.
• Fruit of lower quality, resulting from reduced fertilizer use, is valued less by consumers, leading to price increases and scarcity.
• The study calculated that the indirect land use change outside the EU would be considerable, with extra farmland needed to absorb the effects of reduced EU production.

Statistics:

• 10-20% average production decline due to implementation of F2F and BD strategies (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• Up to 30% production volume decline for some crops (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• 10-20% reduction in pesticide use in scenario 2 (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• 20% reduction in fertilizer use in scenario 2 (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• 10% of farmland to be left to nature in scenario 4 (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• 25% of agricultural land to be used for organic production in scenario 3 (Source: Wageningen University & Research)
• 25 farms across the European Union were included in the detailed case studies (Source: Wageningen University & Research)

Sources:

• Wageningen University & Research
• CropLife Europe
• CropLife International