Europe's Leaders Unite Abroad, Struggle at Home

As the war in Ukraine intensifies, European leaders such as Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Friedrich Merz of Germany, are facing a stark contrast between their foreign policy successes and dismal domestic performances. Despite their differences, they have come together to confront Russia's aggression, but their unity is threatened by their struggles to tackle domestic economic weaknesses and address the growing fragmentation of politics in their respective countries.

Key Takeaways:

• European leaders like Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz are facing a crisis of confidence at home, with plunging poll numbers and opposition from right-wing populist groups.
• Despite their internal struggles, they have shown a united front in their response to the Ukraine war, with increased military spending and a commitment to supporting Ukraine.
• The resilience of European leaders in the face of domestic challenges reflects their determination to confront Russia's aggression, particularly in the wake of the recent escalation of the conflict.
• Experts question how long Europe's leaders can maintain their solidarity abroad while struggling at home, with concerns that domestic economic weaknesses may constrain their ability to support Ukraine in the long term.
• Centrist governments in Europe are fearful of losing their grip on power and have become consumed by domestic issues like immigration and the economy, making it difficult to tackle long-term issues.
• The current solidarity among European leaders could easily fracture if countries are asked to commit troops to a peacekeeping force, especially if voters spurn centrist leaders for more extremist alternatives.
• European leaders have shown a commitment to supporting Ukraine, but their efforts are hindered by their domestic challenges, including a lack of economic coordination and a lack of commitment to long-term policy changes.
• The United States has been a key player in galvanizing European leaders to take action, particularly after the "wake-up call from America."
• Analysts warn that the European attempts to wean themselves off dependence on America's security guarantees will be challenging, particularly in an era of political volatility.
• Examples of the challenges facing European leaders include the rise of right-wing parties in Poland and Germany, and the difficulties faced by centrist prime ministers like Donald Tusk in Poland.

Statistics:

• European countries have pledged landmark increases in military spending, with a focus on supporting Ukraine.
• Poland has suddenly found itself on the war's front lines, with a divided nation over how to treat Ukrainian refugees.
• Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz has negotiated the loosening of state debt limits to finance a mammoth increase in military spending.
• The far-right party Alternative for Germany is leading Mr. Merz's Christian Democrats in polls, posing a threat to his leadership.
• Mr. Macron has more leeway on foreign policy due to his lame duck status, but his eloquence and vision for a strategically independent Europe are vitiated by France's inability to pay for it.
• Mr. Starmer has a stable, secure majority in the Parliament, allowing him a relatively free hand in foreign policy.
• The Labour Party has a 148-seat parliamentary majority, giving Mr. Starmer a significant advantage over his European counterparts.

Sources:

• Peter Ricketts, a former British national security adviser who also served as ambassador to France.
• Richard N. Haass, a former president of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
• Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
• Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
• Mark Landler, The New York Times.
• Pool photo by Ben Stansall FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES.