Failure of Policy, Not Intelligence: India's Nuclear Tests Reveals Washington's Blind Spot

President Clinton's non-proliferation policy has been criticized for failing to anticipate India's surprise nuclear detonations, but according to Michael T. Klare, this failure lies not in the intelligence community, but in the policy itself. Klare argues that the policy focused exclusively on rogue states, neglecting the threat posed by other significant proliferators, such as India, Israel, and Pakistan, which have already acquired nuclear arsenals and ballistic missile delivery systems. This narrow approach has left the US unprepared to address the nuclear ambitions of these countries.

Key Takeaways:

• The US policy on proliferation has been shaped with only one objective: to prevent rogue states from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• The definition of rogue states has been limited to Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea, ignoring other countries with significant nuclear capabilities.
• India, Israel, and Pakistan are among the countries that possess significant nuclear arsenals and ballistic missile delivery systems, presenting a greater threat to regional and international security.
• Other countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, and Taiwan, have also sought nuclear capabilities and may revive their ambitions at any time.
• The US has lavished immense resources on preventing rogue states from acquiring nuclear materials and know-how, while neglecting the nuclear ambitions of India and Pakistan.
• The Clinton administration's non-proliferation policy has focused on scolding senior Indian and Pakistani officials about the evils of proliferation, rather than engaging in a meaningful diplomatic effort to persuade them to abandon their nuclear quest.

Statistics:

• The US has spent an immense and costly effort to prevent rogue states from acquiring nuclear materials and know-how.
• The Clinton administration has focused nearly all its non-proliferation efforts on the five rogue states, with virtually no attention devoted to the nuclear ambitions of India and Pakistan.
• India and Pakistan possess significant nuclear arsenals and ballistic missile delivery systems.

Sources:

• Klare, Michael T. "Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws: America's Search for a New Foreign Policy." Hill & Wang, 1995.