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Economic growth

Fitch Ratings Reaffirms Mongolia's Credit Rating at 'B+, Stable'

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Mongolia's stable economic growth and prudent fiscal management have been cited by Fitch Ratings as key factors in reaffirming the country's credit rating at 'B+, Stable'. The agency's report highlights several positive trends, including a decline in government debt and a steady increase in copper exports. However, the report also notes that Mongolia's vulnerability to external influences remains a primary risk, with inflation expected to average 8.5 percent in 2025-2026.

Key Takeaways:

  • Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Mongolia's credit rating at 'B+, Stable', citing stable economic growth and prudent fiscal management.
  • The key positive factors include a stable economic growth outlook, a steady decline in government debt, and stable investment in the mining sector.
  • Mongolia's GDP growth is projected to reach 5.7 percent in 2025 and 5.3 percent in 2026-2027.
  • The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, while copper exports have largely offset the impact of falling coal prices.
  • The Mongolian government has strengthened fiscal discipline and maintained the budget deficit within acceptable limits in recent years.
  • Government debt is expected to decline to below 40 percent of GDP in the medium term.
  • Prudent management of external debt has enabled the refinancing of a portion of foreign bonds maturing in the coming years.
  • Foreign exchange reserves remain stable, but Mongolia's reliance on raw material exports and high financing levels continues to pose a risk.
  • Inflation is expected to average 8.5 percent in 2025-2026, driven by domestic demand, credit growth, and rising consumer prices.

Statistics:

  • GDP growth: 5.7 percent in 2025, 5.3 percent in 2026-2027.
  • Government debt: Expected to decline to below 40 percent of GDP in the medium term.
  • Budget deficit: Maintained within acceptable limits in recent years.
  • Inflation: Expected to average 8.5 percent in 2025-2026.
  • Copper exports: Have largely offset the impact of falling coal prices.
  • Agricultural sector: Showing signs of recovery in 2025.

Sources:

  • Fitch Ratings (no specific date mentioned)
  • Fitch Ratings' report on Mongolia (no specific date mentioned)

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