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Bush, George W.

Flawed Data on Terrorism: A Threat to National Security

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

National security has emerged as a major issue in the upcoming election, with President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry engaging in a debate over the effectiveness of U.S. efforts to combat terrorism. However, available data on global terrorist attacks are woefully inadequate, and the government's "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report has been marred by serious errors, including arithmetic mistakes and a wrong cutoff date for the end of the year. The report's credibility and accuracy are compromised due to political spin and lack of transparency in its preparation and release.

Key Takeaways:

  • The State Department's "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report, the most authoritative public information on terrorist activity, has been marred by serious errors, including arithmetic mistakes and a wrong cutoff date for the end of the year.
  • The revised number of people killed or wounded in international terrorist attacks in 2003 was twice what was originally reported, and 56 percent greater than in 2002.
  • The report falsely boasted that 2003 saw the lowest annual level of terrorist attacks since 1969, which is a misleading claim.
  • Critical details, including who prepares the report and decides whether an event is significant, have not been made public, which adds to the lack of transparency.
  • Nonsignificant terrorist events have been tracked less thoroughly in recent years, rendering trends in the total number of events meaningless.
  • Economic data, while imperfect, have a high degree of credibility and are held in high regard, which is not the case with the State Department's report.
  • The State Department's lack of a statistical unit and the politicization of its report create a significant problem for its credibility and accuracy.
  • The agency's internal review is pending, but no changes in procedures to prevent future errors or partisanship have been announced.

Statistics:

  • 2003 saw a revised number of people killed or wounded in international terrorist attacks that was twice what was originally reported.
  • The number of "significant" attacks reached its highest level in more than 20 years.
  • The State Department's report in 2003 was marred by a wrong cutoff date for the end of the year.
  • The report in 1971 was halted by the Nixon administration after a staff member described a drop in unemployment as "marginally significant," while the administration hailed it as "very significant."
  • The unemployment rate decrease that year was later attributed to seasonal adjustment problems.
  • The State Department's report included an accompanying letter to Congress that falsely boasted about the low level of terrorist attacks.

Sources:

  • The New York Times ( April [2023] ) "Patterns of Global Terrorism"
  • [Source missing: possibly "The New York Times (1971)" - needs exact date or format]
  • Todd Sandler, an economist at the University of Southern California, study on terrorism
  • State Department's "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report (2003)
  • Gerald Herbert/Associated Press (photo)

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