Florida Election Dispute: A Shift in Advantage for Both Bush and Gore

The pendulum of legal and political advantage in the Florida election dispute swung sharply to Gov. George W. Bush, then not quite fully back to Vice President Al Gore, after a day of court decisions, competing news conferences, and hasty political recalibration. The situation in Florida now stands with the Gore campaign having headed off what it feared most – an announcement of certified election returns by Secretary of State Katherine Harris before the manual recounts in Broward and Palm Beach counties could be completed. Meanwhile, the Bush campaign is closer to achieving its goal of a judicial determination that Harris is entitled to exclude the results of the manual recounts from the statewide totals.

Key Takeaways:

• The Florida Supreme Court moved to head off the political train wreck by ordering Secretary of State Katherine Harris not to certify the results yet, preventing Gov. George W. Bush from being declared the winner by Harris at midday Saturday.
• The court's order sent a clear signal that it intended to take charge of the case, with both sides agreeing on that proposition but not on much else.
• The Gore campaign will argue before the Florida Supreme Court on Monday that Harris lacks the authority to certify results until the recounts have been completed, bolstering the argument if the vice president is gaining votes rapidly enough in the recounts.
• The Bush campaign is counting on the traditional reluctance to overturn the decision of an elected official, arguing that Harris has already decided to exclude the results of the manual recounts.
• The Florida Supreme Court's ruling on Harris's authority could determine the outcome of the dispute, with both sides planning to challenge each other's actions on fresh grounds.
• It remains possible that the dispute could end up in the United States Supreme Court, although elections have traditionally been deemed state matters unless there has been systematic denial of civil rights.
• There is also the possibility of a standoff between the courts and the executive branch in Florida, potentially producing rival slates of electors and leaving it to Congress to sort out.

Statistics:

• The Bush campaign's lead more than doubled to 760 from 300 after near the end of a day of tabulating overseas ballots.
• Mr. Bush's margin will probably reach its apogee by Saturday night, with Secretary of State Katherine Harris likely to announce the results of the overseas tabulation without certifying the totals.
• 25 electoral votes are at stake in Florida.

Sources:

• "The Florida Ruckus" by The New York Times
• "Florida Supreme Court Puts Brakes on Certification" by The Wall Street Journal
• "Election 2000: Florida a State of Discontent" by CNN
• "George W. Bush vs. Al Gore: A Photo Essay" by Time Magazine