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Gingrich Tops Republican Presidential Candidates in Three Key States, Poll Reveals

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Newt Gingrich has gained significant support among tea party supporters, a crucial factor in his surge among likely Republican primary voters and caucus-goers, according to new surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. The CNN/Time/ORC International Polls indicate that Gingrich leads the field by double digits in three of the four states to first hold contests in the race for the GOP nomination. Strong support from tea party supporters has contributed to his rise, but less than half the people questioned in each state say their minds are made up, indicating that the race is far from over.

Key Takeaways:

  • Gingrich leads the field by double digits in three of the four states: Iowa (33%), New Hampshire (26%), and Florida (48%).
  • In South Carolina, Gingrich is far ahead of the field with 43% of likely GOP primary voters supporting him.
  • Romney comes in second in all four states, with the highest support in New Hampshire (35%).
  • Paul is essentially tied with Romney for second place in Iowa and has double-digit support in New Hampshire.
  • The poll indicates that likely voters may still change their minds, with 55% of likely Iowa caucus goers saying they may change their minds.
  • Strong performances in Republican presidential debates and stumbles by other candidates have contributed to Gingrich's surge.
  • The CNN/Time/ORC poll is the third in the last day and a half to indicate that Gingrich is the front-runner in Iowa and the second in the last day and a half to indicate he's the front-runner in South Carolina.
  • Gingrich's campaign has faced financial difficulties but has seen a significant increase in fundraising and is now building a larger and more effective campaign structure in the early voting states.

Statistics:

  • 55% of likely Iowa caucus goers say they may change their minds.
  • 36% of likely South Carolina primary voters say they may change their minds.
  • 53% of likely Florida primary voters say they may change their minds.
  • 48% of likely New Hampshire primary voters say their minds are open to moving to another candidate.
  • Gingrich scores better among men, older voters, and born-again Christians in some states, but loses to Romney among likely GOP primary voters who are neutral toward the tea party or oppose it.
  • The surveys sampled 419 likely Iowa GOP caucus goers, 507 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, 510 likely South Carolina GOP primary voters, and 446 likely Republican primary voters in Florida.

Sources:

  • CNN/Time/ORC International Polls, Nov. 29-Dec 6, 2011
  • CNN article, Dec 7, 2011

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