Ginsburg's Death Injects Uncertainty into Election

As the nation mourns the loss of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the country is faced with a volatile election climate just weeks before Americans cast their ballots. The fate of a Supreme Court nominee hangs in the balance, adding a new layer of urgency to a campaign already ravaged by a pandemic, economic crisis, and historic civil unrest. The fight over Ginsburg's successor has become a rallying cry for both Democrats and Republicans, offering a chance to energize their bases and potentially shift the course of the election.

Key Takeaways:

• The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg has injected fresh uncertainty into the election, with Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the polls, and the question of whether Republicans will force through a Supreme Court nominee before the election adding a new layer of urgency.
• The nomination of a Supreme Court justice has the potential to galvanize voters, particularly women, as seen in 2016 and 2018, when the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh and the death of Justice Antonin Scalia led to increased Democratic enthusiasm.
• Donald Trump plans to nominate a woman to succeed Ginsburg, potentially appealing to reluctant conservatives and neutralizing the impact of "Republicans for Biden" efforts.
• Democrats are learning from past failures, as a Pew Research Center poll last month showed that more Democratic than Republican voters viewed Supreme Court appointments as an important issue.
• Nancy Pelosi has refused to rule out launching a second impeachment of President Trump as one way to block an appointment, highlighting the high stakes of the nomination.
• ActBlue, the Democrats' fundraising platform, has seen a new hourly record for money raised by Democratic campaigns and causes following Ginsburg's death.
• The vacancy could help Democrats win over 5-15% of Independent or undecided voters, a crucial demographic for President Trump's re-election hopes.
• The replacement of a liberal justice with a conservative one would give Republicans a decade-long majority on the Supreme Court, handing them immense power regardless of future election outcomes.

Statistics:

• A Pew Research Center poll last month showed that 52% of Democratic voters and 34% of Republican voters viewed Supreme Court appointments as an important issue (Pew Research Center, [no date]).
• Trump's approval rating among Independent voters has fallen to 44% (Gallup, September 2020).
• The vacancy could help Democrats win over 5-15% of Independent or undecided voters (Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report).
• In the 2018 midterms, the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh galvanized Democratic women, increasing Democratic enthusiasm and ultimately leading to significant losses for Republican House candidates (Cook Political Report, 2018).

Sources:

• Ilya Shapiro, director at the conservative Cato Institute, quoted in "Buckle in. This has made a crazy year in general, and a crazy political year, even more intense" (Washington Post, September 2020).
• Dan Eberhart, Trump donor, quoted in "Trump's strength among reluctant conservatives and we are talking about those that overlap with the audience that the 'Republicans for Biden' are gunning for has been his singleminded focus on remaking the courts with McConnell" (Washington Post, September 2020).
• Nancy Pelosi, Democratic speaker of the House, quoted in "Protecting our democracy requires us to use every arrow in our quiver" (Washington Post, September 2020).
• ActBlue, the Democrats' fundraising platform, reported record hourly fundraising following Ginsburg's death (Washington Post, September 2020).
• Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, quoted in "This was already going to be an ugly election for down-ballot Republicans ...[this] will make it worse" (Washington Post, September 2020).