Global Merchandise Trade Volume Sees Strong Growth in Q1 2025

Global merchandise trade volume showed a surge in the first quarter of 2025, with a 3.6% month-on-month increase and a 5.3% year-on-year growth, driven by significant imports in North America due to expected tariff increases. The World Trade Organization's (WTO) latest forecast was surpassed by the actual growth rate, but economists predict a slowdown in trade expansion later in the year due to ample inventories and higher tariffs.

Key Takeaways:

• Global merchandise trade volume increased by 3.6% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, mainly due to a surge in imports in North America.
• The growth was driven by widespread expectations that the United States would announce new tariff measures on April 2, leading importers to purchase in advance to avoid higher tariffs.
• North America's imports grew the strongest month-on-month, reaching 13.4% in Q1 2025.
• The World Trade Organization expects the pace of trade expansion to slow later this year due to ample inventories and higher tariffs weighing on import demand.
• Regional growth in commodity trade volume varied significantly in Q1 2025, with North America showing the strongest imports.
• The increased trade activity was not limited to imports, with exports also playing a significant role in the growth.

Statistics:

• Global merchandise trade volume: 3.6% month-on-month increase and 5.3% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025.
• Imports in North America: 13.4% month-on-month growth in Q1 2025.
• World Trade Organization's latest forecast: surpassed by the actual growth rate in Q1 2025.
• Tariffs on imports in the United States: expected to increase, driving up demand for imports in late March and early April.
• Q1 2025 growth in regions: varied significantly, with North America showing the strongest imports.

Sources:

• World Trade Organization: latest data released on the 15th of the month.
• Yi Xin: author of the article.