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International trade

Global Trade Defies Tariff Turbulence as DHL Global Connectedness Tracker Reports Record-High Activity

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the US imposes its highest tariffs since the 1930s, global trade remains robust, with a projected 2.5% annualised growth rate from 2025 to 2029, according to a special update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker. The report, a joint effort between DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business, offers the first systematic assessment of how international trade and business investment react to shifting US trade policy under President Trump's second term. With over 20 million data points from more than 25 sources, the report provides a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of globalization and global trade.

Key Takeaways:

  • Global trade continues to grow, with a projected 2.5% annualised growth rate in global trade volumes from 2025 to 2029, matching the pace of the previous decade.
  • Only 13% of global goods imports went to the US in 2024, and 9% of exports came from the US, indicating that most countries are not heavily reliant on US trade.
  • Tariffs are slowing global trade growth but are not expected to stop it; global goods trade volume forecast has been downgraded from 3.1% to 2.5% due to tariff increases.
  • The Middle East & North Africa is one of the few regions with upgraded growth forecasts, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt demonstrating growth, resilience, and strategic relevance.
  • Global trade defies tariff turbulence, growing faster than in any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound, with US imports surging early in 2025 as buyers rushed to frontload purchases ahead of tariff hikes.
  • China fully offset declining exports to the US with increased shipments to the ASEAN region, while also growing exports substantially to Africa, the EU, and other markets.

Statistics:

  • Global trade volumes are projected to grow at a 2.5% annualised rate from 2025 to 2029.
  • 13% of global goods imports went to the US in 2024.
  • 9% of global exports came from the US in 2024.
  • Tariffs are expected to slow global trade growth, but not stop it, with a projected downgraded growth rate of 2.5%.
  • The Middle East & North Africa's forecast has been upgraded, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt demonstrating growth, resilience, and strategic relevance.
  • Global trade grew faster than in any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound, in the first half of 2025.
  • US imports surged early in 2025 as buyers rushed to frontload purchases ahead of tariff hikes.
  • China offset declining exports to the US with increased shipments to the ASEAN region and also grew exports substantially to Africa, the EU, and other markets.

Sources:

  • DHL Global Connectedness Tracker
  • New York University's Stern School of Business
  • John Pearson, CEO DHL Express
  • Abdulaziz Busbate, CEO DHL Express MENA
  • Steven A Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management
  • TradeArabia News Service
  • SyndiGate Media Inc.
  • Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group

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