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International trade

Global Trade Remains Uncertain Amid High Tariff Rates and Escalating Trade Conflicts

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The recent developments in global trade have resulted in high tariff rates and escalating trade conflicts, leaving the industry uncertain about the future trajectory. According to a report by Maersk, the average effective tariff currently borne by US importers is 21%, significantly lower than the peak of 54% in April but still at a high level. The report highlights the impact of trade negotiations on the direction of global trade and consumer sentiment, with the next critical period expected in July and August.

Key Takeaways:

  • The average effective tariff rate for US importers has dropped from 54% in April to 21%, indicating a still-high level of uncertainty in global trade.
  • The outcome of trade negotiations will significantly impact the direction of global trade and consumer sentiment in the coming months.
  • The global trade industry is bracing for a critical period in July and August, with heightened negotiations between the US and various countries.
  • The US-China trade conflict has had a significant impact on global trade, with the US importing fewer goods from China in recent years, with clothing and fashion companies being a notable example, with dependence on China now down to single digits.
  • The shipping industry has experienced a high demand for container transportation in the first half of 2025, with many US importers opting to pull goods in advance to avoid possible high tariffs.
  • Freight rates surged in response to the peak demand but dropped significantly by the end of June as transportation supply increased and shipping companies adjusted their shipping volumes and routes.

Statistics:

  • Average effective tariff rate for US importers: 21%
  • Peak average effective tariff rate: 54% in April
  • Initial tariff rate imposed on US-China trade conflict: 41% on April 2
  • Reduction in tariff rate after US and China lifted some tariffs: 21% on May 11

Sources:

  • Maersk's Strategic Insights report
  • Beijing: China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Machinery and Electronic Products news release

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