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Avian influenza

Hong Kong's Advantage in the Face of Bird Flu Pandemic

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Hong Kong's experience in dealing with avian influenza has prepared the city for the potential threat of a global pandemic from the H5N1 bird flu virus. With a history of outbreaks in 1968, 1957, and 1997, where six people died from the virus, Hong Kong has a unique advantage in fending off outbreaks. The city's affluence also enables it to afford expensive antiviral drugs, such as Tamiflu, developed by Roche. However, the company's refusal to lower the cost of the drug or allow generic versions to be made has exacerbated the situation, leaving millions of people unprotected.

Key Takeaways:

  • Hong Kong has a history of dealing with avian influenza, with outbreaks in 1968, 1957, and 1997, resulting in six deaths from the virus.
  • The city's affluence enables it to afford expensive antiviral drugs, such as Tamiflu, which has helped keep bird flu outbreaks at bay.
  • The manufacturer, Roche, is unable to meet the demand for Tamiflu, citing production limitations, despite manufacturing millions of doses.
  • The World Health Organisation estimates that even if Roche manufactures Tamiflu at full capacity for 10 years, only 20% of the world's population would be protected.
  • India is preparing to make a generic version of Tamiflu for use in countries where the patent does not apply.
  • Taiwan is negotiating for a licence to produce Tamiflu and may go ahead without one to protect its people.
  • Roche has donated large quantities of Tamiflu to the WHO, Turkey, and Romania, but is still unwilling to allow generic versions to be made.

Statistics:

  • The 1918 bird flu pandemic killed 40 million people worldwide.
  • The cost of a five-day course of Tamiflu is US$60.
  • Even if Roche manufactured Tamiflu at full capacity for 10 years, only 20% of the world's population would be protected.
  • Roche is unable to meet the demand for Tamiflu, citing production limitations, despite manufacturing tens of millions of doses.

Sources:

  • "Hong Kong's advantage in the face of bird flu pandemic"
  • World Health Organisation
  • United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan's speech at the WHO's headquarters

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