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Housing

Housing Shortage Worsens as Trump's Policies Target Undocumented Workers

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The housing market is facing an unprecedented crisis, with housing starts hitting a five-year low in May. Despite a severe shortage of affordable housing, numerous factors are exacerbating the issue. The Trump administration's policies, such as tariffs on Canadian lumber and high mortgage interest rates, are significantly contributing to the decline in housing supply. Furthermore, the administration's efforts to deport thousands of construction workers, mostly undocumented immigrants, will only worsen the shortage. Immigrants dominate the roofing workforce, constitute a majority of drywall installers, and may be a plurality of carpenters as well. The loss of these workers will have a devastating impact on the housing construction industry.

Key Takeaways:

  • Housing starts have reached a five-year low in May, with fewer starts than in any month since the 2020 pandemic, according to the Census Bureau.
  • Immigrants, documented and undocumented, dominate various construction trades, including roofing, drywall installation, and carpentry.
  • Trump's tariffs on Canadian lumber and high mortgage interest rates have reduced housing supply, contributing to the severe shortage.
  • The administration's efforts to deport construction workers will only exacerbate the shortage, as these workers are essential to the housing construction process.
  • A quarterly forecast by UCLA's Anderson School of Management predicts that California's economy will contract in the coming year due to Trump's tariff and deportation policies.
  • Major sectors of California's economy, including agriculture and construction, will likely see supply falling even shorter of demand due to the lack of skilled and willing workers.

Statistics:

  • Fewer housing starts in May than in any month since the 2020 pandemic (Source: Census Bureau).
  • 80% of drywall installers are immigrants, documented and undocumented (Source: Unnamed source).
  • 60% of roofing workers are immigrants, documented and undocumented (Source: Unnamed source).
  • California's unemployment rate is expected to increase in the coming year, leading to a shortage of skilled workers (Source: UCLA's Anderson School of Management).
  • California's economy, if it were a nation, would be the world's fourth-largest economy (Source: UCLA's Anderson School of Management).

Sources:

  • Census Bureau (https://www.ft.com/content/3ffaf2cf-815c-4962-95a5-efda946c46c0)
  • Prospect Magazine, Harold Meyerson (https://prospect.org/topics/harold-meyerson/)
  • Los Angeles Times, Jerry Nickelsburg (https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-06-18/californias-economy-will-contract-as-unemployment-rises-in-2025-ucla-forecast-predicts)

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