IMF Revises Global Economic Forecast Upwards, Cautions on Trade Uncertainty

As the US paused heightened tariffs for 90 days, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic forecast, expecting a 3% growth rate this year, up from an initial projection of 2.8%. The growth momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with the economy projected to expand marginally to 3.1%. The IMF attributes the revised forecast to a modest decline in trade tensions, which has contributed to the resilience of the global economy.

Key Takeaways:

• The IMF has revised its global economic forecast upwards by 20 basis points, expecting a 3% growth rate this year, up from an initial projection of 2.8%.
• The growth momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with the economy projected to expand marginally to 3.1%.
• The IMF attributes the revised forecast to a modest decline in trade tensions, which has contributed to the resilience of the global economy.
• Most regions are experiencing modest growth upgrades this year and next, with Sub-Saharan Africa's growth expected to expand 4% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.
• Economic growth in advanced countries is expected to expand by 1.5% and 1.6% this year and next year, respectively, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025.
• The anticipated growth is still below pre-COVID levels, with global growth remaining disappointingly below the pre-COVID average.

Statistics:

• Global economic growth forecast: 3% this year, up from 2.8% initial projection
• Growth momentum expected to continue into 2026: 3.1% growth rate
• Sub-Saharan Africa's growth expected to expand: 4% in 2025, 4.3% in 2026
• Economic growth in advanced countries: 1.5% this year, 1.6% next year
• Emerging markets and developing economies growth forecast: 4.1% in 2025

Sources:

• IMF World Economic Outlook report