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Indian Equity Markets Face Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-down opening on Monday, as escalating geopolitical tensions and economic data take center stage. Despite this, foreign fund inflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) might limit the downside. Several key factors will be watched closely, including net direct tax collection, eight core sectors' growth, and HSBC Flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index data.

The finance ministry has made a case for improving export cargo facilities on ports, and oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri has assured that India's oil supplies are sufficient for several weeks. On the global front, US markets ended mostly in red on Friday due to a weak regional manufacturing activity, and Asian markets are trading in the red on Monday after the US launched strikes on nuclear sites in Iran.

Key Takeaways:

  • Net direct tax collection dipped 1.39% to Rs 4.59 lakh crore, with a slowdown in advance tax mop-up and higher refunds.
  • India's eight core sectors' growth slowed down to 0.7% in May, the lowest in nine months, from 6.9% in the same month last year.
  • RBI's foreign exchange reserves rose to $698.95 billion for the week ended June 13, with a net increase of $2.294 billion.
  • The finance ministry report recommended improving gate infrastructure, including IT systems, scanning facilities, and temperature-controlled facilities for perishable export cargo across ports.
  • Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri assured that India has enough energy supplies to meet requirements for several weeks and continues to receive supplies from several routes.
  • The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday, with a weak regional manufacturing activity reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Asian markets are trading in the red on Monday, following the US launched strikes on nuclear sites in Iran.
  • Indian equity benchmarks rebounded sharply by over 1% on Friday due to bargain hunting in Telecom, Realty, and Utilities stocks amid a correction in global crude prices.

Statistics:

  • Net direct tax collection dipped 1.39% to Rs 4.59 lakh crore.
  • Eight core sectors' growth slowed down to 0.7% in May.
  • RBI's foreign exchange reserves rose $2.294 billion to $698.95 billion for the week ended June 13.
  • The eight core sectors include coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizer, consumer food, consumer non-food, and electricity.
  • The finance ministry report recommended investing Rs 2,400 crore to improve gate infrastructure.

Sources:

  • The Hindu BusinessLine (June 10, 2025)
  • Business Standard (June 10, 2025)
  • Reserve Bank of India (June 13, 2025)
  • Accord Fintech Pvt. Ltd. (June 10, 2025)
  • Contify.com (June 10, 2025)

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