Indian Solar Industry at a Critical Juncture: US Antidumping Probe Threatens Export Volumes and Profit Margins

The US Department of Commerce's investigation into subsidization of Indian solar PV module manufacturers has sent ripples through the industry, with potential consequences for export volumes, capacity utilization, profit margins, and returns. Indian solar companies, which have been expanding their capacity and benefiting from government incentives, may face significant challenges in the wake of this probe. As the US Commerce Department initiates a countervailing duty investigation, 43 Indian solar PV module manufacturers are now under scrutiny, with the possibility of subsidy rates being calculated for individual companies.

Key Takeaways:

• The US Department of Commerce's investigation into subsidization of Indian solar PV module manufacturers may impact export volumes and margins for Indian companies significantly.
• Indian solar companies benefit from government incentives such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, amounting to about Rs 18,000 crore for a cumulative capacity of about 50 GW.
• A large part of the 18.6 GW module capacity became operational only over 2024-2025, limiting the benefits of the PLI scheme to the aforesaid period.
• Indian players have started diversifying their supply chains away from Chinese origins, but a sizeable portion of cell imports continues to be from China.
• Realisations on Indian modules in 2024 were around 35 cents, as against 23 cents for Indonesia and 18 cents for Laos.
• The final action taken by the US Department of Commerce against Indian solar PV manufacturers remains to be seen, but the result of the investigation is unlikely to come out before the end of FY26.

Statistics:

• 43 Indian solar PV module manufacturers are under investigation by the US Department of Commerce.
• Indian solar companies benefit from a Rs 18,000 crore PLI scheme for a cumulative capacity of about 50 GW.
• 18.6 GW of module capacity became operational between 2024-2025.
• Realisations on Indian modules in 2024 were around 35 cents.
• Chinese imports account for a sizeable portion of cell imports.

Sources:

• CareEdge Ratings: Analysis by a research house indicating the potential impact of the US probe on Indian solar companies.
• IE Online Media Services Pvt. Ltd.: Copyright 2025, distributed by Contify.com.
• US Department of Commerce: Probe into subsidization of Indian solar PV module manufacturers.
• Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Director, CareEdge Ratings: Comments on the impact of government incentives and trade barriers on Indian solar companies.