Iowa Caucuses Fail to Settle GOP Nomination Bidding

The Iowa caucuses, marking the opening salvo in the 2000 Republican presidential nomination process, are unlikely to produce a decisive outcome. Current frontrunner George W. Bush is poised to secure a comfortable majority, while John McCain's strategic decision to bypass Iowa and focus on New Hampshire may ultimately prove a shrewd move. Amidst the electoral uncertainty, the expectations game becomes a defining feature, where victories are measured not by absolute margins but by how close they keep opponents at bay.

Key Takeaways:

• The University of Iowa's Heartland poll indicates Bush at 54 percent, Forbes at 18 percent, Keyes at 6 percent, and McCain and Bauer tied at 5 percent. The poll was conducted over the past two weeks, providing a snapshot of the candidates' relative positions ahead of the caucuses.
• Political scientist Arthur Miller observes that in the twisted world of political expectations, Bush and Forbes may not gain much from achieving a solid win in Iowa, given their significant resource expenditures. Miller suggests that a win below expectations may even be detrimental to their campaigns, raising questions about their perceived strength and legitimacy.
• The defining battles in the nomination process are still set to unfold in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where McCain is currently lagging behind Bush in recent polls. The outcome of these contests will largely determine the direction of the nomination bid, with each candidate trying to establish momentum ahead of the crucial showdowns.
• The Bush campaign is counting on a complex system to mobilize supporters and ensure their votes are counted. This includes a phone-tree network, headed by area captains, aimed at maximizing attendance at the caucuses.
• Despite his confidence in a big-margin win in South Carolina, recent polls indicate a potentially tightening race, with McCain showing positive movement in recent days. This may hint at a profilactic South Carolina performance if the new Hampshire outcome stacks against Bush.
• The Iowa caucuses will be a battle for momentum rather than a decisive delegate count. Iowa sends only 25 delegates to the national convention, a relatively small number that may ultimately prove to be insignificant in determining the eventual nominee.

Statistics:

• The University of Iowa's Heartland poll gave Bush a 54 percent margin over Forbes, Keyes, and McCain-Bauer tie for 5th, conducted over the past 14 days.
• 100,000 or so Republicans are expected to participate in the 7 p.m. caucuses.
• Iowa sends only 25 delegates to the national convention, with 1034 required for the nomination.
• Bush's campaign budget for the Iowa effort is in the tens of millions.
• Bush hopes to get 37 percent, a number not set in stone but an aspirational target based on the 1988 performance of Bob Dole.