Iran's Hypersonic Missile Claims: Separating Fact from Fiction

Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has claimed to have fired hypersonic missiles toward Israel, but experts are skeptical about the claim. The missiles, dubbed "Fattah 1," are said to be capable of reaching speeds above Mach 5, five times the speed of sound. However, whether these missiles are truly hypersonic is a matter of debate. Experts say that hypersonic weapons must have advanced navigation systems, making them nimble and capable of changing their trajectory. Israel's military has intercepted most of the missiles fired by Iran, with over 400 missiles launched and only 40 causing damage or casualties.

Key Takeaways:

• Hypersonic missiles are defined as any missile that travels beyond Mach 5, five times the speed of sound, and must have advanced navigation systems to be considered truly hypersonic.
• The US and China are the only countries that have developed new-generation hypersonic missiles, but neither has used them in battle.
• Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan have tested or used missiles with similar but less sophisticated technology.
• Iran's Fattah 1 missile has had minimal success and lacks maneuverability, making it hard to consider it a true hypersonic missile.
• Israel's military intercepts most of the missiles fired by Iran, with over 95% successfully intercepted.
• Russia claimed to have used hypersonic missiles in its war against Ukraine, but experts say they do not maneuver enough to be considered true hypersonic weapons.
• Other countries such as Brazil, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Iran, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea have hypersonic weapons programs.

Statistics:

• Over 400 missiles have been launched by Iran toward Israel, with only 40 causing damage or casualties.
• Israel intercepts over 95% of the missiles fired by Iran.
• Russia claimed its Orenshik missile flees at 10 times the speed of sound (Mach 12) in Ukraine.
• China tested its first hypersonic missile in 2017 and has since developed an array of hypersonic weapons.
• The US is developing and testing its own hypersonic programs, with plans to put them on a stealth destroyer.
• The European Union is studying how to develop an interceptor for hypersonic missiles.

Sources:

• Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
• Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Israeli think tank INSS and a former scientist in Israeli defense industries
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2022)
• Associated Press writers Emma Burrows in London and Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv