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Exports

Iran's Oil Exports Defy Maximum Pressure: A Long-Term Threat to US Policy

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Despite significant economic sanctions and military strikes, Iran's oil exports have continued to surge in the first six months of 2025, reaching nearly 1.7 million barrels per day in June and totaling over 50 million barrels worth an estimated $3.6 billion. This revenue will be used to fund Iran's aggressive policies, including rebuilding its air defenses, missile capacity, and terror networks.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran's crude oil exports averaged 1.67 million barrels per day from February to June 2025, a 37% increase from January 2025 and 30% higher than the total export average for the same period, which includes condensates and fuel oil.
  • The Islamic Republic's total oil export average for the February to June period was 1.84 million barrels per day, with 88% being crude oil, 10% fuel oil, and 2% condensates.
  • The primary destinations for these exports were China (92%) and the United Arab Emirates (6%), with 80% of shipments coming from the Kharg Island oil export terminal, which operated during the 12-Day War.
  • Preliminary data indicate that Iranian oil exports are recovering from a slight decline in June, reaching nearly 2 million barrels per day with 1.8 million barrels being crude oil.
  • The reasons for Iran's continued export capacity are its evolving sanctions-busting capabilities, Washington's insistence on a deal through 2025, and a graduate approach toward maximum pressure.
  • U.S. Treasury has not targeted major banks and ports, particularly in China, that are implicated in the illicit trade, despite a congressionally mandated report identifying 27 countries involved in Iran's illegal oil trade.

Statistics:

  • Iran's crude oil exports averaged 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd) from February to June 2025.
  • Total Iranian oil exports averaged 1.84 mbpd for the same period.
  • 88% of Iran's oil exports in June 2025 were destined for China.
  • 6% of Iran's oil exports in June 2025 went to the United Arab Emirates.
  • 80% of Iran's oil shipments in June 2025 came from the Kharg Island oil export terminal.
  • U.S. Navy seized tankers transporting Iranian oil once in 2025, compared to Trump's first term when average oil exports were 800,000 barrels per day.

Sources:

  • Tankertrackers: "Iran Oil Export Tracker"
  • US Department of Treasury: "Press Releases"
  • Foundation for Defense of Democracies: "Reports"
  • The Wall Street Journal: "Report"
  • Congressionally mandated report from the Biden administration: "Report"

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