Iran's Response to US Military Strikes: A Waiting Game or a Potential Escalation

In the wake of the US military strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, experts and former officials warn that Tehran may retaliate, but with no clear idea of what form that response will take. Former top US counterterrorism official Javed Ali agreed that a strong Iranian counterpunch is "possible but very risky," citing the situation as "very different" from the January 2020 conflict after the US and Iran last attacked each other. Iran has many options for retaliation, including launching missiles, mobilizing its proxy forces, or launching cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran's hard-line supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will likely dictate the country's response to the US military strikes, which could be a complex decision for him, balancing his survival instincts with his defiant stance against US pressure.
• Iran's retaliatory options may include launching missiles, mobilizing its proxy forces, or launching cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure, including oil facilities and shipping lanes.
• The US intelligence community has assessed that Tehran will continue to use its loose consortium of terrorist and militant actors against the US and Israel, but Khamenei's desire to avoid escalating a conflict may temper his response.
• Iran's regional power has been eroded by the death of its strongest regional ally, Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad, and the decimation of its proxies, such as Hezbollah.
• The US will be watching and waiting to see if Khamenei and Iran decide to launch a unilateral response or a coordinated effort with proxy groups, and is preparing for the worst while hoping and working for the best.

Statistics:

• 700% increase in cyberattacks on Israeli infrastructure (Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery)
• Over 100 US service members wounded in the 2020 Iranian missile attack on Iraqi military bases (Javed Ali)
• 300 deaths in the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy and a Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon (Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery)
• 46 years of ongoing conflict between the US and Iran (Karim Sadjadpour)
• 2,000 US troops evacuated from Iraq in 2020 due to Iranian threats (John Bolton)

Sources:

• CNN, June 21: "US strikes Iranian targets, Iran threatens revenge"
• USA TODAY: interview with Brett McGurk, former U.S. intelligence official
• CNN: "Iran's response to US airstrikes could be more than just a missile strike"
• Washington Post: "Iran's hardline president tells Trump Iran will not back down"
• The New York Times: "US and Israel launch strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities"
• USA TODAY: "Iran's cyberwarriors are a growing threat to US critical infrastructure"
• Reuters: "US and Iran exchange threats after US strikes on Iranian targets"