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Iranian foreign relations

Iran's Supreme Leader Seeks to Outlast US and Israel in Conflict

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has maintained the country's hostility to the West during his 36 years in power, and his regime's worldview has been shaped by the lessons of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. With the recent US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, Khamenei is now facing one of the biggest challenges to the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. Despite Iran's limitations in the face of more advanced US weaponry and severe economic constraints, Khamenei is unlikely to back down, having built his military strategy on patience and endurance.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ayatollah Khamenei's regime has based its military strategy on patience and endurance, reflecting its rulers' takeaways from the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
  • The Islamic Republic has pursued a strategy of "no war and no peace" with the US, seeking to demonstrate that it can endure wartime economic hardship and outlast its enemies.
  • Iran's supreme leader has chosen not to compromise on its nuclear program or domestic repression, fearing that US would interpret such concessions as weakness.
  • The regime has built a complex web of influence across the region, with Iranian officials co-opting Iraqi politicians and mobilizing Shia militias to attack US forces.
  • Iran's response to the recent US attack on its nuclear sites will likely involve sustaining a war of attrition, aiming to force the US and Israel to compromise in the face of mounting costs and domestic backlash.
  • The development of a nuclear arsenal may be part of Iran's long-term strategy for achieving deterrence and securing its status as a regional great power.

Statistics:

  • Iran's military is woefully inadequate in the face of more advanced US weaponry, with a military that is ill-equipped to confront the US's advanced support systems and technologies.
  • The Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s cost Iran billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives.
  • Iran's economy has been severely constrained by international sanctions, with estimates suggesting that the country's GDP has been impacted by tens of billions of dollars.
  • The US has maintained a robust presence in the region, with tens of thousands of troops stationed across a network of bases.

Sources:

  • Vali R. Nasr, "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History"
  • The New York Times

(PHOTOGRAPH BY Hugo Clarence Janody/Hans Lucas, via Redux)

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