Sign in Subscribe
Biden, Joe

ISIS-K Claims Responsibility for Kabul Airport Attack, Amid Fears of Bloody Future in Afghanistan

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

ISIS-Khorasan, the Islamic State's Afghanistan and Pakistan arm, issued a statement claiming responsibility for the suicide bombing attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and dozens of Afghans near the airport in Kabul. The series of blasts ripped through crowds of civilians trying to flee before the U.S. withdrawal deadline, highlighting the rivalry between the Taliban and ISIS-K, and underscoring concerns about a bloody future in Afghanistan. Analysts and experts say the attack is a reminder that the country remains contested, and that the Taliban will struggle to stave off attacks as it tries to secure and govern a war-weary nation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The attack was carried out by ISIS-Khorasan, a rival of the Taliban, which has a long history of operating in Afghanistan.
  • The group's main goal is to stay politically relevant, disrupt efforts to stabilize the country, and undermine the Afghan Taliban's credibility.
  • The attack targeted the Taliban as much as it did the Americans, and was seen by some as a battle over ideologies and hearts and minds.
  • The target of the attack was also seen as the U.S. and Western governments, who had warned of the threat before the attack.
  • The U.S. military deaths marked the first in Afghanistan since February 2020, and the Pentagon said another 15 service members were wounded.
  • The attack shows that ISIS-K can now focus on undermining the Taliban, which will be hard-pressed to stave off attacks as it tries to secure and govern the country.
  • Amira Jadoon, an assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy, has written extensively about ISIS-K and said that an unconditional U.S. withdrawal and Taliban takeover would bring about "the most permissive" environment for the group to operate.
  • Jadoon said that ISIS-K recruits from the Taliban and other militant groups, and carries out prison-break operations to free fighters, and attempts to carve out strongholds in Nangahar and Konar.
  • The group is likely to continue targeting civilians in attacks that "tend to be more lethal and garner more publicity," and that the Taliban will need additional support to constrain ISIS-K.

Statistics:

  • 13 U.S. military deaths in the attack, marking the first in Afghanistan since February 2020.
  • 15 U.S. service members wounded in the attack.
  • Dozens of Afghans killed and wounded in the attack.
  • The attack was the first major incident in Afghanistan since the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021.
  • ISIS-K claims responsibility for 47 attacks in the first two months of 2021, comparable to the group's peak years of 2017 and 2018.
  • The group retains a core group of 1,500 to 2,200 fighters in Afghanistan's Konar and Nangahar provinces, with smaller cells scattered across the country.

Sources:

  • By Hannah Allam and Souad Mekhennet, The Washington Post.
  • Defense Department report, August 17.
  • Center for Strategic and International Studies report.
  • The SITE Intelligence Group statement, tweeted by Rita Katz.
  • Amira Jadoon, U.S. Military Academy assistant professor, and co-author Abdul Sayed, report in March.
  • Arab intelligence official, quoted anonymously.

Read more