Israel and Iran's Nuclear Conundrum: A Tale of Two Programs

As the world watched the latest developments between Israel and Iran, historians have come to understand that in 1967, Israel had inched to the edge of the nuclear threshold, but ultimately decided not to conduct a demonstration test of a crude bomb after its victory in the six-day war. Today, Iran faces a similar decision, as it expands its uranium enrichment capacities and considers whether to build a nuclear weapon.

Key Takeaways:

• In 1967, Israel's scientists assembled at least one rudimentary nuclear device on the eve of the six-day war, using plutonium extracted in a secret underground facility.
• Israel's unique status as a nuclear power is the product of a secret 1969 deal with the US, which allowed Israel to keep its nuclear weapons undeclared.
• The west's toleration of Israel's secret arsenal is seen in the Middle East as a symbol of its hypocrisy, allowing an ally to flout non-proliferation norms while punishing Iran.
• Iran has inched closer to the technical capabilities of a bomb after signing the non-proliferation treaty and enduring onerous inspections while swearing off using nuclear weapons.
• Iran's leaders have issued ambiguous warnings that they would reconsider their nuclear doctrine if faced with an existential threat.
• The US, Israel, and other western powers face an impossible choice: accept a new, brash entrant to the nuclear club, tempt others to follow suit, or seek to punish Iran.
• Israel's nuclear scientists hastily assembled a prototype device in 1967, using plutonium from a secret underground facility, and handed it over to soldiers.
• Israel's Begin Doctrine, which allows for air strikes against nuclear facilities deemed a threat, has shaped Iran's own nuclear posture.

Statistics:

• Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity is approximately 400kg and could be quickly enriched to weapons grade.
• Iran has doubled its uranium stockpile in recent months.
• Israel's nuclear arsenal is estimated to contain dozens of sophisticated devices.
• The US has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, which had limited Iran's uranium enrichment capacity.

Sources:

• Vali Nasr, former senior adviser to the US state department and author of Iran's Grand Strategy
• Avner Cohen, a leading historian of Israel's nuclear secrets
• Uzi Arad, former research director at Israel's spy agency Mossad
• Financial Times, quoting Kamal Kharrazi, foreign affairs adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
• Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, led by former chief Ali-Akbar Salehi
• Federation of American Scientists
• Getty Images, Maxar Technologies, and the Financial Times for satellite imagery and reporting.