Israeli Pullout from Lebanon: A Master-Stroke or a Precarious Gamble?

The impending Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon has set the stage for a crucial decision by the Syrian leadership, with far-reaching implications for the peace process in the Middle East. As the deadline approaches, President Hafez Al Assad must weigh the benefits of accepting the current peace terms against the risks of allowing Palestinian refugees to attack northern Israel, potentially sparking a new cycle of violence. The stakes are high, not only for the Syrian leadership but also for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who will be judged on the success of his unilateral withdrawal strategy.

Key Takeaways:

• The Israeli pullout from southern Lebanon is a strategic move aimed at recapturing the "high moral ground" and potentially strengthening the country's claim for a total withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
• Syrian President Hafez Al Assad faces a critical decision: to accept the current peace terms or risk global isolation by allowing Palestinian refugees to attack northern Israel, potentially escalating violence.
• The success of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's unilateral withdrawal strategy will be closely watched, particularly as it relates to his promise to hold a spring 2000 referendum on a peace deal with Syria.
• The Syrian leadership is under pressure due to corruption drives targeting high-ranking officials, with former premier Mahmoud Al Zohbi expelled from the Baath party and facing trial for corruption.
• The Baath Party is set to hold its first national congress in 15 years in June, with Bashar Al Assad expected to join the party's top hierarchy and potentially cement his position as future leader.
• The Syrian leadership's efforts to boost Bashar's profile and secure his position as future leader are driven by concerns about Bashar's health and the need to leave behind a legacy of peace with Israel.
• A deal between Syria and Israel is seen as a crucial step towards breaking the current stalemate, with President Assad discouraged by the lack of progress in talks and the June deadline for a pact looming.

Statistics:

• $50,000: the estimated daily cost of government corruption to the Syrian treasury.
• $4.5m: the total loss of state revenue due to 39 cases of fraud in the first quarter of 2000.
• 15 years: the interval since the last Baath Party national congress.
• 70 years old: the age of President Hafez Al Assad, who is in poor health and under pressure to secure a peaceful legacy.
• 39: the number of cases of fraud uncovered by state financial controllers in the first quarter of 2000.
• 4.5m: the dollar loss suffered by the Syrian treasury as a result of 39 cases of fraud.
• $50,000: the daily cost of government corruption to the Syrian treasury.

Sources:

• Syrian Arab News Agency (Sana), May 10, 2000
• 'Tishrin' newspaper, May 2000
• unnamed sources in the Israeli and Syrian governments