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Iranian foreign relations

Israel's Attack on Iran: A Complex and Limited Military Objective

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Israel's attack on Iran involved more than half of Israel's air force, with 200 aircraft in at least two waves, targeting nuclear facilities and military leadership. The operation aimed to decapitate Iran's military, destroy production facilities, and damage nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow. The question remains whether Israel can destroy Iran's nuclear sites by itself, given the limitations of its military capabilities.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israel's F-15 fighter bombers can carry 4,000-5,000lb GBU-28 bunker buster bombs, each capable of punching through 5-6m of concrete, but their numbers are a closely guarded secret.
  • Israel's forces "don't have enough 5,000 pounders" to take out Fordow and Natanz, according to retired US Air Force General Charles Wald.
  • Israel has more BLU-109 2,000lb ordinance penetrator bombs, capable of being carried on F-35 stealth fighters, but even then, multiple passes were required to penetrate an underground shelter in Beirut.
  • Israel can also target nuclear sites with stand-off weapons, such as ballistic missiles launched from fighter jets, but these would not be sufficient for destruction.
  • Natanz and Fordow, Iran's primary sites for enriching uranium, are buried under dozens of meters of reinforced concrete, requiring successive hits with bunker-buster bombs to destroy.
  • Israel may be targeting Iran's military leadership and regime change, in addition to neutralizing its nuclear program.

Statistics:

  • 200 Israeli aircraft participated in the attack on Iran.
  • 100 drones have been launched by Iran, mainly 136-Shaheds, which are easy for Israel's air defenses to pick off.
  • Iran has an estimated 2,000 ballistic missiles with warheads that can carry 2,000 pounds of explosives or more.
  • Israel's air defense system, including Iron Dome and a US Thaad antimissile battery, is legendary, but its supply of interceptors has become an issue.
  • Iran has increased its production of ballistic missiles to roughly 50 a month.
  • Iran has an estimated 211 fighter and fighter/ground attack aircraft distributed around 11 air bases.

Sources:

  • Global Security
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative
  • Defense Intelligence Agency, Aug 2019
  • FT research
  • Axios

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