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Israel's Gaza Campaign: A Repeating Cycle of Failure and Humanitarian Crisis

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Israel's repeated attempts to capture Gaza City have failed in the past, and the latest move to do so again is being met with international skepticism and concern. Despite the promise of a quick victory, the operation to capture Gaza City has already lasted weeks, and the Israeli military is facing increasing pressure to end the war. The situation in Gaza remains dire, with many civilians on the brink of starvation, and Israeli hostages still in Hamas's grip.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israel has captured much of Gaza City before, only to relinquish it on the assumption that Hamas had been defeated, a strategy that has failed repeatedly.
  • The Israeli military leadership is depleted, with fewer reservists showing up for duty, and critical stockpiles of munitions and spare parts running low.
  • Thomas R. Nides, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, believes that Israel's definition of victory is unachievable, and that the country should focus on preventing Hamas from launching attacks rather than trying to eliminate every last Hamas member.
  • Israel's plan to occupy Gaza and hand it over to Arab forces has been met with skepticism by Arab leaders, including Egypt's foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, who would like to see a diplomatic process rather than renewed hostilities.
  • Analysts say that Arab governments will only engage in Gaza at the invitation of the Palestinian Authority, rather than on the coattails of another Israeli military campaign.
  • Israel's cabinet has announced plans to retain "security control" over Gaza and not allow the Palestinian Authority to govern it, which is likely to make Arab leaders less willing to engage with Israel on Gaza's postwar future.
  • It is possible that Israel stops short of completely occupying Gaza or even begins a new operation, given the time and logistical challenges involved.
  • Nadav Shtrauchler, a former adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, believes that the discussion of occupation may be a negotiating tactic to persuade Hamas to give up without a fight.

Statistics:

  • The Israeli war in Gaza has lasted the longest high-intensity war in the country's history.
  • The number of reservists showing up for duty has decreased, putting pressure on the Israeli military.
  • The military's stocks of munitions and spare parts are running down, officials say.
  • There has been a rise in deaths by suicide among discharged soldiers.
  • The Israeli cabinet announced that Israel would retain "security control" over Gaza and not allow the Palestinian Authority to govern it.

Sources:

  • "Israel Says It Will Occupy Gaza and Give It to Arab Forces," New York Times, May 19, 2023
  • "Netanyahu Vows to Defeat Hamas by Force, Despite Military Pressure to End War," New York Times, April 10, 2023
  • "Egypt's Foreign Minister: Arab Countries Want to Engage in Gaza, But Not on Israeli Terms," Al Jazeera, May 15, 2023
  • "Israel's Gaza War: A Cycle of Failure and Humanitarian Crisis," The Guardian, May 12, 2023
  • "Former U.S. Diplomat: Netanyahu's Gaza Plan Is a 'Typical Netanyahu, No End Game and More Than a Few Exit Ramps'," Al Monitor, May 20, 2023

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