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Mayors

John Tory Weighs Political Comeback as Mayoral Elections Loom

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Toronto's former three-term mayor, 71-year-old John Tory, is considering a comeback to politics, with insiders predicting a decision by the end of summer on whether he will run for mayor in 2026's municipal election. The possibility of Tory's return to politics has sparked discussions among potential candidates and their backers, with Tory's strong name recognition and pull with donors potentially squeezing out like-minded challengers who may also seek to unseat incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tory, who resigned in February 2023 after a relationship with a staffer was revealed, is considering another mayoral bid, with five sources indicating he may run.
  • Three of these sources put the odds of Tory running again at an even 50/50, while a fifth source predicted a 90% likelihood.
  • Tory would likely face questions about his conduct in office, including an October 2023 integrity commissioner report concluding his relationship with a staffer broke ethics rules.
  • Potential candidates like Ana Bailão and Marco Mendicino may be deterred from running if Tory enters the race, with Bailão seemingly content with her current role.
  • Coun. Brad Bradford is informally organizing and giving indications he remains all in on the 2026 mayoral race, despite discussions with former Tory staffers.
  • Other potential challengers, including Anthony Furey, are considering runs against Mayor Chow.
  • The municipal election, set for October 26, 2026, is over 16 months away, but candidates and backers are already discussing the potential candidates.

Statistics:

  • 5 sources indicated Tory is considering another mayoral bid.
  • 3 sources put the odds of Tory running again at an even 50/50.
  • 1 source predicted a 90% likelihood of Tory joining the race.
  • The municipal election is set for October 26, 2026.
  • 16 months pass before the election day.
  • $1 million is the estimated cost to run a competitive mayoral campaign.

Sources:

  • Multiple sources with knowledge of John Tory's thinking.
  • Integrity commissioner report from October 2023.
  • Toronto Star article from October 26, 2023.
  • Interviews with Ana Bailão, Marco Mendicino, and Brad Bradford.
  • Emails with Anthony Furey.

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