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European Union

Keir Starmer's Unlikely Allies: President Trump and Brexit

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the UK's economy teeters on the brink of recession, with faltering growth, stubbornly high inflation, and rising unemployment, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in an unexpected alliance with President Trump, whose policies have inadvertently aided the UK's economic prospects. The situation is ironic, given Starmer's previous stance against Brexit, but the UK's departure from the EU has enabled the government to assert sovereign control, delivering policies that would have been impossible while part of the bloc.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK's economy is facing a bleak future, with faltering growth, rising unemployment, and high inflation, which has seen refineries close in Grangemouth and Lincolnshire, pricing out industries across the country.
  • The Office for National Statistics reveals that the root cause of the UK's problems lies in its uncompetitive energy costs and poor productivity levels, rather than Brexit-related trade issues.
  • The UK has secured better trade deals with Japan, Australia, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, and India, something the EU failed to achieve in over 15 years of negotiations.
  • The US-UK deal struck by Starmer with President Trump is a result of Brexit, allowing the UK to welcome trade barriers that would have been imposed by the EU.
  • The EU has accepted its trade with the US results in a large surplus and requires rebalancing, but imposes non-tariff barriers on the UK, including the obstinacy to agree to cultural access visas.
  • The UK's single malt whisky industry has suffered £500m in lost sales due to the EU's trade war with Boeing, and a whisky tariff-free deal with the US could be achieved thanks to Brexit.

Statistics:

  • The UK's inflation rate remains stubbornly around 3 per cent.
  • Public borrowing is increasing, and tax revenues are below expectations.
  • The difference between EU and non-EU export trends is non-significant, but UK goods exports have dipped compared to pre-Covid expectations.
  • The UK's energy costs are a significant contributor to its economic woes, leading to a decline in industries such as car production, metal extraction, and oil and gas extraction.
  • The Office for National Statistics reveals that the UK's GDP growth rate has been revised downward, suggesting the country may be heading towards recession.
  • The UK's industrial production has decreased significantly, with a 39 per cent drop in oil and gas production over the past four years.

Sources:

  • (/news/donald-trump-in-scotland-live-the-president-meets-prime-minister-keir-starmer-at-turnberry-5243985)
  • (/news/scottish-news/donald-trump-in-scotland-aberdeen-reacts-as-us-president-to-fly-in-to-arrive-at-balmedie-golf-resort-5245400)
  • (/news/politics/donald-trump-makes-scotch-whisky-didnt-know-comment-as-he-meets-sir-keir-starmer-at-turnberry-5245021)
  • Office for National Statistics
  • Office for Budget Responsibility
  • European Union
  • United States Government

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