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European Union

Keir Starmer's Unlikely Debt to Brexit and Donald Trump

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Keir Starmer's Labour party is in disarray, threatened by a new splinter party from the left and struggling with faltering economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment. Meanwhile, Starmer's pledge to end the influx of people being trafficked across the Channel is on track to see the highest number of illegal landings since the Normans in 1066. As tensions in some towns and cities rise, a fear of summer riots is taking hold, prompting authorities to establish a special police unit to monitor signs of unrest on social media. Internationally, the need to resolve the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine continues to dominate international affairs, masking the continued threat of China's expansionist strategies. Despite his party's economic woes, Starmer has reason to thank Brexit and President Trump for allowing the UK to strike better trade deals with Japan, Australia, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, and India.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK's economic prospects are looking bleak, with faltering growth, high inflation (3%), increasing public borrowing, and tax revenues below expectations.
  • The most generous taxpayers are leaving the country, while both junior and resident doctors are about to strike in England and Wales due to increasing pressure on the NHS.
  • Starmer's pledge to end Channel crossings is on track to see the highest number of illegal landings since the Normans in 1066, sparking concerns of summer riots in some towns and cities.
  • A special police unit has been established to monitor signs of unrest on social media.
  • The UK has negotiated better trade deals with Japan, Australia, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, and India, thanks to Brexit.
  • The UK's trade deal with the US is a significant achievement, with President Trump promising to look at the issue of Scotch whisky tariffs.
  • The EU's regulatory barriers, including non-tariff hurdles and Brexit punishments, have hindered UK trade.

Statistics:

  • 3% inflation rate (no specific time frame mentioned)
  • PS12 billion worth of fishing rights given away to the EU until 2038
  • 53 million tonnes of oil and gas extracted in 2019, down to 34m in 2023
  • UK goods exports have dipped compared to pre-Covid expectations
  • No significant difference between EU and non-EU export trends
  • The UK's trade deal with Japan, Australia, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, and India has been negotiated

Sources:

  • No specific source mentioned for the 3% inflation rate or the PS12 billion worth of fishing rights given away
  • Figures on oil and gas extraction from 2019 and 2023 are not attributed to a specific source
  • Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures on UK goods exports
  • ThinkScotland.org, an independent Scottish think tank

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