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Kentucky and Pennsylvania Primaries: Key Takeaways on the Way to the 2024 Elections

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The primaries in Kentucky and Pennsylvania on Tuesday could signal the mood of voters ahead of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, with the Kentucky governor's race and a special legislative election in Pennsylvania poised to have significant implications.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Republican primary for governor in Kentucky has been unexpectedly feisty, with Attorney General Daniel Cameron and Kelly Craft vying for the nomination against Ryan Quarles, with Cameron backed by former President Donald Trump and Craft touting her experience as ambassador to Canada and the United Nations.
  • Cameron, who would become the state's first Black nominee for governor by either major party if he wins, has been criticized by Craft's campaign for his policy decisions as attorney general and his ties to the Biden administration.
  • Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, who has enjoyed high approval ratings, is expected to cruise through the primary against two opponents, but will face a Republican challenge in a state that Republicans usually dominate.
  • The special legislative election in Pennsylvania's Philadelphia suburbs could determine whether Democrats retain a one-vote majority in the state House of Representatives, and the outcome could demonstrate how voters are feeling in a crucial region of a swing presidential state.
  • Votes will be cast in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court primary, and Philadelphia voters will participate in mayoral primaries as the city faces upticks in gun violence and safety concerns.

Statistics:

  • The campaign for Kentucky Governor has seen significant spending, with Kelly Craft loaning her campaign over $9 million and running TV ads for months before her opponents started airing their own ads.
  • The Kentucky governor's race has been marked by feisty attacks, with a pro-Craft group calling Cameron an "establishment teddy bear" and Cameron backers criticizing Craft's tenure as ambassador.
  • Pennsylvania's House of Representatives has a one-seat majority for Democrats, which could change with two special legislative elections on Tuesday.
  • The Philadelphia suburbs, where the critical special legislative election will take place, are a crucial region in a swing presidential state.

Sources:

  • Associated Press writers Marc Levy, Brooke Schultz, and Mark Scolforo in Harrisburg, Pa.

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