Kerry Gains Momentum in Virginia's Democratic Primary

Senator John Kerry's campaign has surged in the lead-up to the Democratic primary in Virginia, where he is poised to emerge victorious on Tuesday. Kerry's strong status in the state has been bolstered by the fading candidacy of Howard Dean and a concerted effort by General Wesley Clark, which has cut into Senator John Edwards's support in the more conservative south side. The endorsements of Governor Mark Warner and the support of veterans and labor organizations have solidified Kerry's position, making a victory on Tuesday more likely than ever.

Key Takeaways:

• Kerry's momentum in Virginia has been fueled by his strong performance in the state's liberal northern suburbs, where he has gained support from voters who had previously backed Howard Dean.
• General Clark's aggressive campaign and initial advertising efforts have cut into Edwards's support in the more conservative south side, making it a close battle between the two for second place.
• Kerry's endorsements from Governor Warner and the support of veterans and labor organizations, including the A.F.L.-C.I.O., have bolstered his position in the state.
• Edwards's populist message, tailored to appeal to voters in the south side, may not resonate with affluent voters in the densely populated northern suburbs.
• Kerry's victory in the state's primary would be significant, demonstrating that a Democrat can compete with President Bush for the military vote and showing that Kerry can win in the South.

Statistics:

• Kerry is leading Edwards by nine points or more in recent polls.
• Edwards has the support of the textile workers' union, while Kerry has received strong labor backing from the state A.F.L.-C.I.O. and several major locals.
• Kerry has opened phone banks of veterans calling other veterans to vote, and has received support from veterans and labor organizations.
• The campaign has spent over $500,000 on television advertising in Virginia, with Kerry and Edwards each running their own hard-hitting commercials.
• 82 delegates are up for grabs in Virginia's primary, with the first binding Democratic primary in state history taking place on Tuesday.

Sources:

• "Kerry Gains Ground in Virginia, Democrats Say" by Richard Berke and Timothy M. Phelps, New York Times, February [no date provided]
• "Kerry, Edwards Duel for Voters in Virginia" by Terry M. Neal, Washington Post, February [no date provided]
• "Dean Concedes Virginia to Con centrate on Michigan and Wisconsin" by Timothy M. Phelps, New York Times, February [no date provided]